Patna: Bihar is in the midst of a peculiar and bizarre political drama. The Chief Minister has been expelled by his party and is now an unattached member of the Bihar Assembly. He is seeking a confidence vote with his former party opposing him and his bitter critics and rivals till a few days back gearing up to save him.
The battle of one-upmanship between Bihar Chief Minister Jitan Ram Manjhi and his mentor-turned-rival Nitish Kumar has reached the decisive state with the confidence motion scheduled on February 20. Nitish Kumar's Janata Dal United applied for and succeeded in getting Leader of Opposition post in Bihar Assembly after claiming the support of 130 MLAs even as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accused Speaker Uday Narayan Chaudhary of not being neutral.
JDU, which just a few days ago was ruling Bihar, replacing BJP as the principal opposition in the state has almost no parallel in India's political history. JDU has not only thrown out one of its own MLA who was also the chief minister from the party but even after claiming the support of more than half the MLAs is occupying the opposition benches.
With BJP's 87 MLAs deciding to back Manjhi during the floor test and JDU and its new-found allies opposing the current dispensation, the state is staring at a long drawn political battle which will culminate only after Assembly elections scheduled later in 2015
Here are the possible scenarios for the three main protagonists of the political drama:
Jitan Ram Manjhi:
It is highly improbable with Manjhi enjoying the support of just 11 JDU MLAs eight of whom have been barred by Patna High Court from voting on confidence motion will come out the winner even though BJP leader Sushil Kumar Modi announced his party's support for the Chief Minister. Manjhi along with 11 rebel JDU MLAs is likely to get the support of 87 BJP legislators and four Independents. But the total of 103 is way short of the halfway mark of 117 in the 243-member Bihar Assembly whose present strength is 233 with 10 vacancies.
If Manjhi sails through the floor test, he will not gain in political stature but also become a rallying point for the 23% Mahadalit community in the state who are going to play a major role in the next elections. Manjhi's predecessor Nitish Kumar astutely cultivated the Mahadalit community after creating a new segment. But if Manjhi turns the table on Nitish on February 20, it will be major blow to the latter who is already been accused by his rivals of being power hungry.
Sources close to Manjhi told IBNLive that he is going to give an impassioned speech in the Assembly during the confidence motion and paint Nitish as an opportunist. He will try to rally the Mahadalits around him by accusing the JDU of trying to dislodge a leader of their community to fulfil the whims and fancies of Nitish.
Nitish Kumar:
The most likely scenario is a win for the Nitish camp as JDU has the numbers on its side. JDU with 99 MLAs including the Speaker enjoys the support of Rashtriya Janata Dal (24), Congress (5), Communist Party of India (1) and one Independent. So with 130 MLAs on his side, Nitish is confident of returning as Bihar CM once again after a gap of a little more than nine months.
He will have a time frame of about six months to showcase his governance skills once again. Although he has had a good track record of governance but his breakup with the BJP, his resignation following Lok Sabha election rout and later the tussle with Manhji have made a huge dent in his image of "sushashan babu".
Nitish, once known as Lalu Prasad's "Chanakya", broke away from the RJD supremo in February 1994 to form his own party. The two remained bitter rivals for more than two decades with Lalu moving closer to the Congress and Nitish joining hands with the BJP. Nitish swept to power in 2005 on the promise of ending "jungle raj" in Bihar which was an euphemism for the Lalu Prasad-Rabi Devi's rule.
With their political survival after being steamrolled by the Narendra Modi juggernaut in the Lok Sabha elections, the two came together to register an impressive win in the Assembly by-elections in August 2014.
BJP has been calling Nitish and Lalu opportunist and alleging that Bihar will return to "jungle raj-2" if the JDU-RJD alliance comes to power. Lalu's conviction in a fodder scam case, disqualification as a MP and subsequent bar on contesting elections is also coming in handy for the BJP.
Nitish has to not only allay fears that he will be able to provide good governance but also fight off allegations of joining hands with a convict to stay in power. Lalu is likely to extract a heavy price in the form of securing some meaty portfolios including a deputy chief minister's post for his daughter Misa Bharti for his support.
BJP:
The party is in a win-win situation provided it plays its cards right. Supporting Manjhi during the floor test will give it the bragging rights of coming to the rescue of a leader from the most backwards section of Bihar. BJP already has Lok Janshakti Party chief Ram Vilas Paswan in its camp and together with Manjhi the two can prove to be quite a handful for Nitish.
But BJP's big worry will be the loose cannon nature of Manjhi who is known to shoot off his mouth at will. Several BJP MLAs are not happy with many of his statements and decisions like calling upper castes foreigners, claiming to have paid bribes and accepted commissions from contractors.
Top BJP leaders of Bihar have also charged Manjhi of running an ineffectual and corrupt administration with law and order being the biggest casualty. How they explain their change of heart to the Bihar electorate will be keenly watched.
So the BJP leadership will have to tread with caution on Manjhi as taking him along can also prove to be counterproductive. While BJP may back him in the short run, yet the party is unlikely to give him a prominent place in its scheme of things as it already has in Paswan a tall Dalit leader who is eager to protect his turf.
Following a massive loss in Delhi elections, BJP would want to avoid any pitfall in Bihar.
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