New Delhi: If the 2008 US Presidential vote was about Change, the 2010 mid-term vote was about disappointed hope that little had changed in the US economy. What perhaps made the Democrat defeat worse was the huge difference in national sentiment from just two years ago, when President Barack Obama won so convincingly and across every age and income group.
Even so, the results of Tuesday's election will probably not impact Obama's agenda as he heads to India this weekend. In an interview to agency PTI he has already made it clear substantive concessions to India on issues like nuclear exemptions, and support for the UN Security Council seat are 'complicated'.
Officials on both sides do hold out hope for other hi-tech exemptions, as well as agreements on defence, agriculture, clean energy and health.
The impact of the results, however, may be felt over the long-term, and could even prove to be beneficial for India.
To begin with, the overwhelming vote on economic issues may push Obama to rethink his own left-of-centre policies that have amongst other things targeted outsourcing to India.
Many analysts feel the US President will now be forced to shift right, to less protectionist positions, and try a new tack on his country's flagging economy. After all, it was the Democrats who led the way on outsourcing restrictions, and made it a campaign plank.
Yet, in blue collar states where outsourcing should have been the biggest issue, like Ohio, Michigan, Iowa and Pennsylvania – Republicans have made big gains. Clearly for the voter the jobs being outsourced overseas are not as important as the jobs that are not being created in the US because of a lack of market confidence.
The shift in the balance of power in the House of Representatives may have some positive effect for India as well- as many of the Bush Republicans who have been elected will be more inclined to pro-India legislations on nuclear issues, climate change, clean energy and reversing the hi-tech restrictions on India needed to push these along. These were the direction of the US administration pre-2008.
But the vote may have some cause for worry for India- particularly if one looks at the reasons for voter behaviour rather than the results. According to a CNN poll the economy was the number one concern for a whopping 52 percent of voters studied.
Issues of more concern to New Delhi like terror netted 4 per cent of their vote, and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq netted 8 per cent. The US shift away from these issues may mean less pressure on terror groups especially those like the Lashkar-e-Toiba, based in Pakistan that continue to threaten India.
And if the US pushes on with earlier plans for a pullout from Afghanistan beginning next year, and not a 'drawdown' as promised, the scenario may see Pakistan gaining the driver's seat in Afghan affairs, at India's cost.
Certainly the mid-term election results in the US will give the Obama administration many reasons to change course, and as a consequence should give many in India food for thought at well.
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