It is now almost certain that one of the next five years will be the warmest on record. Chances are high that it could even beat the temperature record set in 2016, when there was an exceptionally strong El Niño triggering the worst heatwaves across the region.
Experts said typically, El Niño increases global temperatures in the year after it develops – in this case, this would be 2024. The chance of temporarily exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius has risen steadily since 2015, when it was close to zero.
According to the latest update by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is now more than a 50 percent probability that annual global near-surface temperatures will exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels for at least one year before 2027. The dire warnings are part of the latest Global Climate Update issued by the specialised agency of the United Nations, giving temperature predictions for the 2023-2027 period.
With the world already 1 degree Celsius warmer than the 1850-1900 period, scientists said the impact of climate change will be intensified with a naturally-occurring El Niño, which is set to fuel global temperatures this year onwards.
“However this does not mean that we will permanently exceed the 1.5 degrees Celsius level specified in the Paris Agreement, which refers to long-term warming over many years,” said WMO secretary-general Prof Petteri Taalas, adding that there was only a 32 percent chance that the five-year mean will exceed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold.
A naturally-occurring event, El Niño basically indicates a rise in surface temperatures over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This causes change in wind patterns and ocean currents, making the atmosphere warmer than it already is. The latest update from the US-based National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA) suggests El Niño is likely to set over the next few months.
Experts further said combined with human-induced climate change and greenhouse gases, El Niño will push global temperatures to rise with Arctic warming also disproportionately high. This will have far-reaching repercussions for health, food security, water management and the environment, they added.
The average global temperature in 2022 was about 1.15 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 average, said the UK’s MeT Office, which is acting as the lead centre for the WMO’s Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update. The Paris Agreement sets long-term goals to guide all countries, including India, to substantially reduce global greenhouse gas emissions to limit global temperature rise in this century to 2 degrees Celsius – while pursuing efforts to limit the increase even further to 1.5 degrees Celsius – to avoid or reduce adverse impacts and related losses and damages.
The new report was released ahead of the World Meteorological Congress starting May 22.
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