What Prashant Kishor brings to the table for any political party, and how successful he has been as an election strategist, have been subjects of much debate. Many, including Kishor himself, have argued that the role he plays makes a difference only at the margins, and does not change electoral mandates that are one-sided or predetermined. However, most leaders who have availed of his services, irrespective of where their political stocks have been at the time they employed him, have been clear about the role they expect him to play. The Congress Party though, proved to be an exception.
Over the last two years, talks between Kishor and the party’s first family have been a recurring phenomenon, breaking down and starting afresh every few months. This week, with a potential deal reaching the final stage and collapsing at the eleventh hour, and Kishor publicly stating that he had declined the offer made to him, it seems the long-drawn saga has finally concluded.
Also Read: The Prashant Kishors of the World May Come and Go But Congress is Doomed by Design
The Congress Party has attempted to play down the entire episode. Its spokespersons claim that the party engages with various election strategists, and Kishor was only one of them. They also state that one man could never have been the panacea for all the troubles afflicting the party in the Modi era. However, calling Kishor one of the many strategists it engaged with or claiming it never believed he could turn the party’s fortunes around, is inaccurate. No other strategist gets a direct line with the party’s first family, or the opportunity to present a plan for the party’s revival to its senior-most leadership. A special committee being constituted to review the suggestions that were presented, an offer to be part of an empowered group, or hourly updates to the media about how the talks were proceeding, clearly indicate that onboarding Kishor was a big deal for the Congress Party.
According to media reports, Kishor demanded a role in the party’s messaging, ticket distribution, and alliances for 2024. Other than when he worked for Narendra Modi and was only starting out as a strategist, Kishor has played a part in the messaging, ticket distribution, alliances and many other key components for his clients. How he brought about synergy between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad Yadav in 2015, how he controlled TMC’s political machinery in 2021, and how he ran a tight ship in the messaging department for Captain Amarinder Singh and MK Stalin, are well-known. Kishor’s demands, therefore, were not out of the ordinary. After all, he had to turn around a depleted and discredited organisation in two years, and give it a fighting chance against the world’s largest and most well-oiled political machinery. If the party had no plan of giving him a say in how it would conduct itself, what was the point in co-opting an election strategist like him? Why would the Congress Party go out of its way only to make a figurehead out of a decorated strategist, while safeguarding itself from any substantive change?
The answer to these questions perhaps lies in certain underlying assumptions that the party’s first family seems to have made. Firstly, with the party facing one setback after another, the family seems to be on thin ice. Outsourcing the party’s controls could have been a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it might have arrested the party’s decline and even strengthened its position considerably in comparison to where it stands today. On the other hand, a relative rise in its fortunes under such circumstances would strengthen the case to make the family’s role increasingly peripheral. Secondly, however, the aforementioned eventuality would never arise if Kishor were to successfully power the Congress Party or a non-BJP alliance to victory. In such a scenario, the family would be lauded for trusting the right man, and would be the natural claimant to power. The hesitation to give Kishor a free hand, therefore, indicates that defeating the BJP in 2024 seems to be an outlandish proposition within the Congress Party. As things stand today, the family does not seem to think that the Congress is in a position to take on the BJP, with or without Kishor.
Kishor’s high-profile entry into the party without any control over its functioning would have killed many birds with one stone. The family would continue to retain all control and have a convenient excuse to blame all its shortcomings on. The 2024 loss would have a prominent scapegoat. The case for sidelining the family would be majorly undermined, buying it more time, perhaps even another election cycle. Many would argue that the party is not in a position to improve its prospects ever again, let alone in one election cycle. But the family remaining in control of the party increases its own probability of being at the country’s helm of affairs once again. Interestingly, if the party thinks it can do nothing to be in contention for 2024, it subscribes to a growing school of thought which believes that going forward, only the BJP can be the cause of its own undoing. The family, therefore, needs to remain relevant and bide its time, with the hope that BJP makes a mistake.
Kishor’s statement rejecting the Congress Party’s offer seems to confirm the underlying assumptions. While being upfront about the fact that the party requires an overhaul in structure and leadership, he says that he declined to “take responsibility for the elections”. In other words, had he accepted the offer, the responsibility for the elections would be his while the status quo on leadership and structure would have prevailed. This is further backed up by how instead of accepting Kishor’s revival plan, it was sent down the party’s bureaucratic maze. Kishor might have a mixed track record of winning some and losing some. But he was certainly never going to stake his reputation for a near-impossible national-level project of such magnitude, without any guarantee that he would be given some leeway to make a real difference.
The big political headline this week is that Prashant Kishor has rejected the Congress Party’s offer. But if one digs a little deeper, the bigger headline is that for the Congress Party, a loss in 2024 seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Ajit Datta is an author and political commentator. He has authored the book, ‘Himanta Biswa Sarma: From Boy Wonder to CM’. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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