UP Next: Congress’ Big Worry — If Priyanka Gandhi Mobilising Discontent Will Benefit Samajwadi Party

The Congress is running its Uttar Pradesh election campaign under the leadership of national general secretary Priyanka Gandhi who has succeeded in articulating the dissatisfaction among the masses and mobilising it for electoral purposes. Through its campaign, the Congress is recreating a narrative of public discontent against the BJP government in the state and disseminating it to the public. Priyanka Gandhi has been trying to highlight the incidence of oppression and suffering of people during the second wave of Covid-19 through lectures and online campaigns.

It is also trying to reach out to several social groups such as most backward communities, women, young girls, migrant labourers by creating hope and desire of empowerment. She started popular campaigns such as ‘Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakati Hoon’ (I am a girl, I can fight). The Congress, however, through these campaigns, helped mobilise discontent against Yogi Adityanath but may not be successful in translating it into votes.

It seems that the element of discontent which Priyanka is sharpening against the BJP may be advantageous for the Samajwadi Party. It was seen in the 2012 Uttar Pradesh election campaign, when Rahul Gandhi led a popular campaign against the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with a powerful slogan — ‘Haathi Paisa Khata Hai’ (The elephant is corrupt). It benefitted the Samajwadi Party in terms of electoral success.

When political analysts ask why this is happening, the answer is: neither the party has any vote base nor a strong organisation to transform the ‘feeling of dissatisfaction’, which the party is sharpening to expand in term of votes at the booth level. It’s almost true. As we know the Congress has never been a cadre-based party, it has remained a party, which has capitalised for a long time on the memories of the freedom movement, its governance and social welfare programmes and the state-led popularity and charisma of its leaders such as Jawahar Lal Nehru and Indira Gandhi and structure of vibrant regional leaders.

Till the rise of the BSP, led by Kanshiram and Mayawati, Congress was a politically powerful party with strong electoral presence. The analysts are of the opinion that the BSP snatched Congress’ strong Dalit base vote, which weakened the party. After the Shahbano case and the opening the lock of Ram Janmabhoomi temple, a section of Muslims deserted the Congress and slowly its Brahmin base also shifted to the BJP. The Dalits, Muslims and Brahmins were the main vote base of the Congress. The Dalits shifted to the BSP and Muslims towards SP and Brahmin opted for the BJP. That is briefly the story of the decline of the Congress.

Congress’s myriad followers and supporters have always worked as the cadre during the past elections, especially, till the 90s. But slowly, the nature of politics changed. Now, it is more tough and complex. To change the nature of electoral politics, the parties need trained and regular cadre with its group of supports and followers. No one can imagine doing successful politics in the age of virtual campaigns and era of big rallies without a strong cadre base and vibrant organisation. However, the Congress lacks a trained regular cadre and circle of supporters, which has shrunk over the years. That is one major loophole in Congress politics in 2022. Parties such as the BJP and SP, however, have a strong cadre base or a committed group of supporters. Thus, to translate the elements of dissatisfaction into a vote bank, the SP may appear beneficial as its committed group of supporters may turn as cadre during the election. One of my friend political analysts once opined that the political diction of the Congress lacks rural nuance.

In spite of all these limitations, the Congress may improve its performance a bit in this election in terms of vote percentage and seats. But what I observe is that the Congress is working to develop its organisational infrastructures, which may help it for future politics in Uttar Pradesh. What the Congress is going to gain or lose can only be assessed after the 2022 Uttar Pradesh assembly election.

Badri Narayan is Professor and Director at GB Pant Social Science Institute, Prayagraj, and author of ‘Republic of Hindutva’. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.

Read all the Latest Opinions here