Assam Elections: The parties, their SWOT analysis and issues

Total Number of seats: 126. Poll Dates: April 4 & April 11

Incumbent government: Tarun Gogoi led Congress government. It has been in power for the last 15 years. Going solo this election, except for aligning with United People's Party (UPP) in the Bodoland Territorial Area District (BTAD).

Main challenger: Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led alliance with Asom Gana Parishad and Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). BJP has given 24 seats to AGP and 16 to BPF.

Possible kingmaker: Badruddin Ajmal led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). It has huge sway in lower Assam, Minority dominated areas and certain areas in BTAD.

Main issues: Anti incumbency of 15 years of Congress rule, issues of illegal immigration, corruption, status of various tribes, tea garden issues, river bank erosion and a host of other local issues

Who stands where and how?

Congress: Tarun Gogoi got a resounding majority against a fractured opposition in 2011 Assembly elections. With 78 seats in the 126-member house Tarun Gogoi had a free run in his third term. The biggest opposition was AIUDF, a party which has its base amongst the Bengali Muslim and hence cannot be seen hobnobbing with the BJP.

But the Modi wave of 2014 wrecked the popular mandate of Gogoi. BJP, a party which had only five members in the Assembly, won seven out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats. Congress could manage only three. While the party claims it has gained currency since then it remains to be seen whether it is good enough to see them through the half way mark of 64.

Cheer: UPP, the Bodo opposition party in Bodoland Territorial Council (BTC) has tied up with Congress. This can give the party a fillip in about 16 seats, as BJP’s ally is also fighting anti incumbency of over a decade’s rule.

BJP: From just five seats in 2011 to being the main challenger, BJP has come a long way in Assam. Most of its top leadership in the state, has been borrowed from AGP and Congress. The best show by BJP was in 2014 Lok Sabha elections where they won seven of the 14 seats from the state. But the Modi factor is on the decline now, with local factor determining the electoral results BJP is hoping that the anti-incumbency in the state is strong enough to see them through.

To prevent the split of the opposition vote BJP has cobbled up a last minute alliance with AGP. But this has also led to rebellion within the party, with even the party’s youth wing president threatening to quit and contest under a new banner. From Mission 84, the Sarbananda-Himanta team have their eyes fixed on magic sixty four, which can bring them to power.

Cheer: An alliance with BPF will ensure that they would get at least some of the 16 seats from the BTAD region, where the party otherwise has a negligible presence.

AIUDF: Perfume baron Maulana Badruddin Ajmal disrupted the political space of Assam by launching a pro-minority political party in 2005. With its ever increasing Muslim electorate, Assam was a fertile ground for Ajmal. AIUDF is the principal opposition party in the Assembly with 18 seats. The base of AIUDF is essentially in lower Assam and in some areas of BTAD.

Ajmal has openly asked his followers to support Congress wherever they are not fielding candidates. In an increasingly bipolar election space, AIUDF can’t be seen holding any truck with the BJP. The best case scenario for Ajmal would be if none of the two manage to reach the half-way mark. AIUDF could, if it wins anywhere around 15 seats, play the kingmaker.

Cheer: Managed to win three seats during the Lok Sabha elections, when Modi mania was at its peak.

AGP: Once a formidable force in Assam, AGP is biting a battle of survival, and has been given only 24 seats by BJP. Even this, many say, has been because of BJP’s desperation to prevent the split of anti-incumbency votes. With half of its leaders gone to either BJP or Congress, AGP today is a skeleton of its former formidable self.

Cheer: Hardly any! If they manage to hold on to their seats, it would be good enough show.

PS: Expect all the pre-poll arrangements to go through a radical shift if no one manages to go pass sixty four. Only thing impossible here is a BJP-Congress alliance!