New Delhi: The results for the Gujarat Assembly elections are in and after a see-saw battle, the BJP managed to retain its western bastion for the sixth time. But the Gujarat election is said to be bigger than just a simple state election and will have national ramifications. News18 looks at how the Gujarat election can impact national politics ahead of the big battle in 2019.
The test of 'Gujarat model'
The assembly election of 2017 has been significant since it was for the first time Prime Minister Narendra Modi's 'Gujarat model' of growth came under such terse criticism in the PM's home state. What started as a Facebook post by 20-year-old Patidar youth Sagar Savaliya, with the words 'Vikas Gando Thayo Chhe' (Vikas has gone crazy), snowballed into a full-fledged social media war with viral memes attacking the BJP. Congress added it two cents by attempting to capatalise on early snags in GST implementation.
Agrarian politics may find space
The BJP has won a simple majority in Gujarat. In retrospect, as the party savours a hard fought victory, it will also be forced to go back to the drawing board to evaluate manifestations of agrarian unrest in this outcome. The rise of second generation caste satraps is also linked to the rural discomfiture. Cotton farmers, in particular, were said to be angry with the ruling dispensation, which may perhaps explain the Congress's performance in rural Gujarat.
Farmer's issues is provinces from Rajasthan to Tamil Nadu thus far have been led by non-political actors. If opposition is able to channelise the discontent in the days ahead, it may pose a challenge to the BJP in the run up to 2019 general elections.
2018: A straight BJP-Cong fight
Despite facing anti-incumbency and popular caste-based agitations, the BJP managed to swing a victory in Gujarat. This is largely credited to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's campaign blitzkrieg and the goodwill he still enjoys in a state he served as Chief Minister for 12 years. In the last 15 days of the campaign, Modi addressed 31 rallies and travelled over 28,000 km.
2018 promises to be an even more politically charged year than 2017 was. If 2017 saw Assembly elections in UP, Punjab, Goa, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat, with the BJP winning all except Punjab, 2018 will see polls in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Karnataka. The 2018 polls are being seen as a precursor or a kind of "semi-final" before the big battle in Gujarat.
No Home Advantage for the PM-Shah duo in Poll-bound states in 2018
As the Prime Minister and BJP President Amit Shah move out of their home state and a resurgent Congress under Rahul Gandhi hopes to reap anti-incumbency in MP, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, the poll pitch may look very different by the end of 2018.
Unlike Gujarat, the Congress state leadership in Rajasthan, MP and Karnataka are strong and have already mounted their attacks against the BJP. A stronger Congress can also become the nucleus around which all other non-BJP regional parties can gather. Wins in the 2018 Assembly polls will give Congress greater negotiating power vis-à-vis regional parties.
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