JDS Wants Its Pound of Flesh, BJP Fishing in Troubled Waters and Congress Faces Revolt in Old Mysore

Bengaluru: In the last week of last year Karnataka chief minister HD Kumaraswamy left for Singapore with his family. A day later, the opposition BJP once again started sending feelers to the disgruntled Congress MLAs to switch sides.

A shocked KPCC chief Dinesh Gundu Rao cancelled his year end holiday plans and started firefighting to foil poaching attempts by the BJP. And the former chief minister and JDS-Congress coalition government coordination committee chairman Siddaramaiah dropped a bombshell by claiming that the BJP is offering Rs 30 crore cash to each Congress MLA to defect.

Strangely, the JDS did not make it a big issue. Its second rung leaders attacked the BJP for “unholy” attempts on the government. The Gowdas were not offensive like they used to be earlier. They were more philosophic rather.

The political analysts realised that something was wrong.

On the first day of new year, the JDS supremo and former Prime Minister HD Deve Gowda dropped the penny. He spoke to media in New Delhi demanding that the Congress must spare at least nine Lok Sabha seats to the JDS.

“The Congress has given us unconditional support. They must honour that. We are demanding 12 out of 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka. They must give us at least nine seats. The 1/3rd formula applies to all,” Gowda said.

He even said that the JDS and the BJP alliance of 2006-07 was unconditional and the Congress should also treat the JDS the same way. Gowda had termed the HDK-BSY government the saddest chapter in his life and had even dismissed his son from the party for going with the “communal” BJP over a decade earlier.

The JDS is exerting pressure on the Congress for a “fair deal” keeping in mind that party president Rahul Gandhi will not allow the coalition to collapse at any cost before the Parliament elections. It is clear that Gowda who is known for deft handling of any political crisis and hard bargaining is trying to get as much as he can from the Congress which wants to halt the march of the BJP in Karnataka.

The Congress and the JDS alliance itself is incompatible as both fight for supremacy in old Mysore region. The BJP is a distant third here with negligible presence in seven districts of the same region.

If the Congress cedes more space to the JDS, the party followers may go with the BJP and the JDS can grow stronger at the cost of the Congress. The local workers and leaders are not comfortable with the present arrangement with the JDS and the Congress is in a fix.

Keeping these factors in mind the state Congress leaders are offering just five Lok Sabha seats to the JDS. The JDS currently has three MPs and the Congress is willing to spare just two more seats.

The BJP which narrowly lost the power in Karnataka is sensing an opportunity here. A section in the party is hoping that the Congress-JDS coalition may collapse due to serious differences over Parliament seat sharing and they can go with the Gowdas by offering them a better deal. The clever Gowads know this and they are playing the cards carefully.

A senior state BJP leader said, “We are weak in old Mysore. We can give 10 seats to the JDS. Together we can easily win over 20 seats. Like the Congress, there will be no hurt feelings too. If the government collapses before the Lok Sabha elections, the JDS may come with us. If the coalition ends over seat sharing differences, the JDS may join us. Even if they go alone, it is good for us.”

In the last Assembly elections Congress had polled 38% votes and the JDS had secured about 19% votes. Across Karnataka together they have almost 60% votes making it a formidable alliance in half the state. The BJP had polled 36% votes in the same Assembly elections.

In the recent Assembly elections, the Congress and the JDS were leading in 22 Lok Sabha seats and the BJP was leading in just 6 Lok Sabha seats. After the elections, in subsequent by-elections together they have won four Assembly seats and two Lok Sabha seats leaving only one seat to the BJP making it jittery.

The BJP is trying to fish in the troubled waters and the JDS is indirectly allowing the BJP to muddy the water further. Because Gowdas know they roll the dice and they can now drive a hard bargain.