The results of the Jammu and Kashmir district development council (DDC) polls last week— which came 16 months after the state of J&K was stripped of its special constitutional status and reorganised into two union territories, followed by a period of restrictions on the politicians and populace there— threw up some surprises while also reinforcing certain long-held notions.
In an interview with CNN-News18, Professor Amitabh Mattoo, one of India’s foremost thinkers and writers on international relations, who till June 2018 was adviser to the J&K chief minister, shed light on the implications of the election outcome, the necessity and road ahead towards restoring statehood promptly, as well as the international considerations.
The recently concluded DDC polls and results have been lauded as a success of democracy in J&K, and proof of Naya Kashmir. Is it correct to see them like this?
I think the elections to the district councils are an important foundational step, but much more needs to be done to build and sustain the foundations of a robust sustainable democracy. First, the district council has to deliver on the promise of true grassroots democracy, including through the panchayats and other local bodies. Second, we must follow them up with elections to the legislative assembly; it is important that the delimitation commission tasked with carving out the constituencies does so at the earliest and without appearing to have resorted to gerrymandering. Finally, the promise of an early restoration of statehood must be translated into reality. The vision of Naya Kashmir is built on the vision of empowering the people of J&K. It is a comprehensive vision; the elections to the DDC are an important step but do not by themselves fulfil that vision.
The results have been mixed and saw success of the Gupkar Alliance. Do you see them as the new political force in the days to come, and for the state polls?
The Gupkar Alliance represents almost the entire spectrum of mainstream political forces of the Valley, except the BJP and the Congress. They included the CPI(M) as well as Sajad Lone’s People’s Conference other than the NC and the PDP. It even included the new JK People’s Movement floated by former IAS officer Shah Faesal. I am not surprised they did well. The only real opposition came from the JK Apni Party, which was largely composed of members from these parties. There was an impression that JKAP was supported by the establishment, and that undermined its prospects. There was not even a glimpse of the separatists either participating or seeking a boycott. The Gupkar Alliance will remain a force in the future, especially in the Kashmir valley, but whether they will continue to remain united remains to be seen given the fractures and internal fissures evident even during the polls.
The BJP has done well in Jammu but not as well as it thought it would in Kashmir, though it opened its account there. But do you see it as a beginning for them?
The BJP has done exceptionally well in the Hindu-dominated areas of Jammu and emerged as the single- largest party in the polls. But although it has made a foray in the Kashmir valley, its acceptance there is still limited. In fact, the success of the Gupkar Alliance could also be attributed to the strong desire within Kashmir to keep the BJP out. Having said that, the BJP has a real chance to demonstrate that it is a party that prioritises good governance if it delivers on basic issues (roads, water, electricity, etc) in the district councils where it has a majority. Its acceptability in the Valley may improve under those circumstances.
Omar Abdullah has raised doubts over future polls saying that many political opponents have been detained. Do you think detention inspires confidence? Don’t you think it doesn’t generate the right atmosphere for free-and-fair polls?
I do think that all political prisoners must be released before the assembly polls, which must be conducted at the earliest after the delimitation has been concluded. That will signal a revival of robust democracy where dissent is provided space and differences are not just tolerated but welcomed.
The other issue is of Internet connectivity. It is bad and has an impact on the economy, education. Do you think it’s time to open it up?
Although broadband fibre with 4G connectivity is available in a couple of districts, it is time to ensure high-speed connectivity all over the UT to ensure that students and businesses do not continue to suffer because of lack of access. In this world of artificial intelligence and improved cyber surveillance, it is possible to counter subversion without needing to stop or slow down connectivity.
The Centre has big plans for J&K. The Prime Minister has inaugurated the Ayushman Bharat scheme, for example. Do you think investors would be confident to invest there even if political turmoil continues?
Sustainable investment is not based on charity. There must be a reasonable expectation of a fair RoI. Political stability is not just desirable but essential if investment has to flow and large corporate houses establish themselves in J&K. While tourism and hospitality can be the main drivers in the long term, in the short term e-learning or e-commerce businesses can do well given the young talent in the UT and given that many of these can be established remotely.
By when do you see J&K becoming a full state again, as promised by the Centre right after abrogation of Article 370 clauses and creation of Union Territories?
This is a commitment made by the government in the two Houses of Parliament. After the successful DDC polls, it is time to restore statehood to the UT at the earliest.
With the Biden-Harris government set to take charge in the US, how do you see the American policy towards the Kashmir issue going forward?
I think with deep concerns about China, and the growing importance of India to the US- in practically every sense- it is unlikely that the Biden-Harris government will actively alienate New Delhi on Kashmir. And yet there are internal stakeholders within the Democratic Party and the US Congress who will continue to raise concerns. The most prudent policy would be to engage them and demonstrate that New Delhi is sensitive to concerns and addressing specific issues with transparency and to uphold its own law and Constitution.
Many experts have pointed out that we overplay the Pakistani threat in Kashmir and underplay the Chinese role. In light of repeated tensions at the LAC, do you fear a multi-pronged war? How can regional peace be ensured?
It is clear to any serious strategic analyst that China is the real challenger; Pakistan is only a sideshow. On the face of it, Beijing has used Islamabad to bind India down as it is now attempting with our other neighbours. We should ideally have been able to have our own version of a Monroe Doctrine that would brook no interference in our neighbourhood. But we need to work on a dual track policy: integrating our neighbourhood through unilateral concessions if needed; and working with our partners, especially within the Quad, to resist any attempt by China to exercise hegemony in our region. This, of course, is easier said than done. But only once we craft such a grand strategic vision, will we be able to fashion our policies to achieving this goal.
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