The flight to Kerala is full of travellers going for summer vacations. Children chatter and are all over the aisle. I am off to find out which political front will be on holiday for the next five years from ruling the state. No election in a political state like Kerala has been as exciting and edgy as this one.
I have been speaking to all sides through the last many months. Left Democratic Front (LDF) will come to power was the popular line. So it looked like a predictable election much before it was announced. No fun then!
I said 45 days before the polls that Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy is in with a chance. Today I am saying the chances are bleak but be ready for a historic verdict on May 19.
Yes, I am going against polls and many veterans minds I respect.
Historic for two reasons. If Chandy manages to win he creates history by coming back to power for the first time since 1977. It is also historic as it could see the Lotus bloom in Kerala. Now no one really knows whether the Lotus will cut the hammer and sickle of the Communist Party of India Marxist or the hand of the Congress.
But why is this election so unpredictable?
The poll done by the CPM-run Kairali channel gave the LDF 81 and upwards. Not so far back there was talk of 100 seats and a landslide.
That's not happening. It's tight and LDF still has the edge. Psychologically the voters and the netas believe that there will be change every five years.
Let's go through some of the past elections. In 1991 the LDF almost made it. Before the second phase of polling former prime minister Rajiv Gandhi was assassinated and the tide changed.
In 2011 the CPM almost came back but for the unexplained losses in north Kerala, the stronghold of Pinarayi Vijayan which stopped VS Achuthanandan from becoming chief minister again.
So the feeling that Kerala doesn't return a government is not a electoral habit but just circumstances.
Now let's look at why there could still be a surprise.
First the minorities who constitute around 46% of the population. Will they stick to United Democratic Front (UDF) or also vote for LDF. This is because during the beef controversy the LDF fought for the right to eat and this helped them during the local body elections.
Beef is not a big issue now. The UDF and its Muslim powerhouse IUML will be sending a message across to the voters that if Congress loses Kerala (and Assam), it will be a boost for BJP's dream of a 'Congress Mukt Bharat!
If Chandy loses, the state might not see a Christian chief minister in a long time. These are not public discourses. But I am sure these thoughts are seeded in the minds of the two communities.
In Kerala everything does not have a communal prism. With 24 lakh new voters these considerations might not be important.
On UDF election calculators they would put 27 to 30% of the total votes including 46% Minority vote. Then they need 10% or more. This is mathematics.
Now for the chemistry. The BJP has a lot of it this time. The Hindus in Kerala are more secular than others. They have been at the forefront of many social justice movements in the state.
Economically over the years they have lost muscle. The BJP has been silently working on this through VHP and RSS. Hindu businessmen have been trying to regain their economic supremacy. A lot of them started joint ventures while they continued with their businesses. Collaborate and compete is the idea here.
The supremacy of IUML and Christian dominated Kerala Congress in the Chandy government has only added to the urge to try the BJP.
Now, a few numbers here. From 4% votes in 2006 Assembly elections to 10% in the 2014 Lok Sabha to 14% in 2015 local body elections, the journey is only getting better.
This elections could be best chance ever for Narendra Modi and his party. Chandy is publicly challenging Modi step by step including taking him on for his Somalia comment but his eye will be on how much the BJP will poll. He is hoping that they will not hurt his votes.
Let me put this this way - the CPM is more worried about the BJP than the Congress. The Ezhava community, the support base of the CPM, along with the Nair community could favour the BJP in its strongholds in Thiruvananthapuram, Manjeshwarm, Palghat and Chengannur.
It's local partner Velapally Natesan who is a liquor baron and businessman is also promising to turn some Ezhava votes for the BJP. How much will the BJP dent and who will they dent in key Thiruvananthapuram constituencies could decide the fate of the front runner LDF.
The other factor - will women who constitute a majority will vote for the UDF for the partial prohibition and phased total prohibition. The CPM knows it will work and their campaigns are focussed on prohibition. That's another X factor.
But won't the anti-incumbency hit the UDF which was swarmed by corruption and sex scandals? The election campaigning started on these issues.
Corruption is a good talking point. It did damage the image of the chief minister. Sarita Nair and her bedtime stories titillated and scandalised many. But the lady lost credibility by her constant change in screenplay.
I don't think the state is voting on corruption and scandals. A survey on corruption provides an interesting insight. 60% admitted that they have paid bribes and do not feel it is fair to pull up netas for being corrupt!
As the election progressed issues changed. From VS wanting to be chief minister against the wishes of the CPM leadership to Somalia to Libya to Mohanlal campaigning. It's an issue less election and BJP is the only issue.
Will the development track record of the government be tested? This government has done well on this ground despite corruption scandals. In a state where delivery is so dismal, a metro in Kochi and a port in Vizhinjam, smart city and good roads are there to see.
The Gulf dream is almost over. The youth is looking for opportunities. They will think who will be good for this. They are not going to vote just to give turns to the two fronts.
Chandy is proving himself to be one pf the shrewdest leader the Congress has had. He is even better than former Kerala CM K Karunakaran in many ways. He was quick to make it into a Modi versus him fight on Somalia. The CPM had to follow him. His people to people contact programme has been a success and more importantly projected him as everyone's chief minister.
Lack of clarity on who will lead the LDF is a big bother. VS is universally popular. Pinarayi is not. But all indications show that the party will make Pinarayi the chief minister. Will that dampen the cadre? Will there be protest vote by the cadre? Party leaders and workers say it will not.
Another X factor:
The double standards of the Congress and Left in Kerala and West Bengal is another case in point. Rahul Gandhi has not been able to explain this and kept away from last minute campaigning.
So this election will be decided by the Hindu votes. The BJP is doing everything to open its account and will be happy to see the Left sit in the opposition for five more years!
But the fixed deposit policy of alternate fronts after every election in Kerala could well be over.
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