The recent blasts in Moldova’s Transnistria has led to fears that Moldova could be sucked into the war in Ukraine. Transnistria region earlier this week reported that the state security ministry, a radio tower and military unit were targeted through mysterious blasts.
Soon after the blasts were reported Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said that Russia is planning to destabilise the region. Similar concerns were echoed by Latvian foreign minister Edgars Rinkevics who said that the blasts reminded him of the initial weeks of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and said that these could be ‘false flag’ operations following which Russia could attack Moldova.
Transnistria has been home to close to half a million people and commonly known as Transdniester, borrowing its name from the east bank of the Dniester River and is a narrow strip of land near the Moldova-Ukraine border. Ethnic Russians and Ukrainians outnumber the ethnic Moldovans in the region.
Following the fall of the Soviet regime in 1990, the Transnistrians got involved in an armed conflict with Moldova and maintained close ties with Russia. It still depends on Russia for its energy needs. The flag of Transnistria bears the hammer and sickle symbol reminiscent of the Soviet Republic and a huge statue of Lenin looms over the centre of its main city Tiraspol. In a 2006 referendum, more than 97% of the residents voted for joining Russia.
If there are no political tensions, people living in Transnistria can travel to Moldova, Ukraine and Russia without any major difficulty.
The region could be important to Russia given its closeness to southern Ukrainian cities of Mykolaiv, Odessa and Mariupol – which Russia is eyeing to cut Ukraine off from receiving military or logistical support. Russia has 1,500 troops stationed there who could be called into action anytime Russia faces an emergency situation but Transnistria rather allows Russia to supply its forces with medical aid and reinforcements in its quest to seize southern Ukraine and its major cities.
Moldova, however, has been warned by Dmytro Kuleba and Volodymyr Zelensky that Russia may expand its war and attack Moldova. However, the US and its western allies have condemned the incidents and said that they respect Moldova’s sovereignty, but they do not share the same concerns as Zelensky. It is however possible that it could be major ploy from Russia to join the territories of Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Artsakh to southern Ukraine and Transnistria and expand its sphere of influence.
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