Since the beginning of the war in Ukraine, Belarus has continued its support for the Russian ‘military operation’. It has provided support for Russia militarily and strategically by allowing Russian forces into its soil. Belarus has so far refrained from direct involvement in the war and has not sent its troops to help Russia.
Russia continues to face opposition from Ukrainian forces and the desired objective of the so-called ‘military operation’ still remains unachieved. With talks going on between Russia and Ukraine, it is still unclear if Belarus’ support would be needed to help Russia in its so-called ‘military operation’.
Lukashenko’s earlier message to NATO, the EU and the US, may shed some light into the possibility of Belarusian involvement in the war on Ukraine. Lukashenko earlier this year said that Belarus will physically host Russian nuclear weapons. It came a day after Russia put nuclear forces on high alert.
It is worth mentioning that Lukashenko said that he would take such action if NATO moves nuclear weapons from Germany to Eastern Europe and this was before Russia putting nuclear forces on alert.
Lukashenko owes Putin his government. When the west, the EU and the US sanctioned Lukashenko for allegedly rigging the election results in 2020, it was Vladimir Putin who helped Lukashenko and his nation’s economy. A NATO involvement could see Belarus join forces with Russia and involve itself militarily but concerns remain since the Belarus army has no direct conflict experience compared to the armies of the US, France and the UK who have battlefield experience.
But since Belarus hosts Russian armies with many even using its 674km long border with Ukraine to enter into the nation, it depends on Putin. If Putin orders so, Belarus may have to evaluate its position and get involved.
Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko has ruled Minsk with an iron fist for almost three decades. The last two years saw opposition to Lukashenko’s rule with people taking to the streets demanding opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya take the leadership role as they felt that the election results were fraudulent.
The opposition leader Svetlana Tikhanovskaya told news agency BBC that Belarus army may see defections if Belarus decides to join the war. News agency Politico in a news report cited a survey (taken on Telegram) where only 3% respondents said that they would support such a measure while most said that they would disapprove.
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