Export-Import Bank of India (India Exim Bank) forecasts India’s total merchandise exports to amount to US$ 111.7 bn, witnessing a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 4.2%, while non-oil exports are forecast to amount to US$ 89.8 bn, with a YoY growth of 6.26%, during Q2 (July-September) of FY2025.
Exim Bank said that positive growth in India’s exports could be as a result of India’s continued strong economic activity backed by sustained momentum in the manufacturing and services sector, expected global monetary easing and improving demand prospects in trading partners.
The outlook is, however, subject to risks of uncertain prospects for advanced economies, geopolitical shocks, the Middle East crisis, global supply chain disruptions and deepening geoeconomic fragmentation, among other factors, Exim Bank highlighted.
The positive growth rate in total merchandise exports and non-oil exports, as witnessed in the previous three quarters, is likely to continue, Exim Bank stated.
A forecast of growth in India’s total merchandise exports and non-oil exports is released by Exim Bank every quarter, during the first fortnight of May, August, November, and February for the corresponding quarters, based on its Export Leading Index (ELI) model.
Exim Bank has developed an in-house model to generate an Export Leading Index (ELI) for India to track and forecast the movement in India’s exports every quarter.
The next growth forecast for India’s exports for the 3rd quarter of FY 2025 (i.e. October-December 2024) would be released during the first fortnight of November 2024.
Comments
0 comment