The elections witnessed a fierce fight between archrivals Congress and BJP, with a majority of the exit polls predicting a tight contest between the two and leaving space for the JD(S) to play the role of kingmaker in case of a hung assembly. While chief minister Basavaraj Bommai said he was confident of a stupendous victory for the BJP, it is to be seen if the saffron camp can rewrite history and emerge as the single largest party once again as it did in 2018. The results will spell out the electoral fortunes of not only Bommai, but also of Congress heavyweights Siddaramaiah and DK Shivakumar, as well as top leaders like HD Kumaraswamy of the JD(S) among others.
This time, Karnataka registered a record voter turnout of 73.19 percent. But the Election Commission of India’s strategy to beat urban apathy in state capital Bengaluru, by holding the elections midweek, failed to make a difference; the IT capital recorded a dismal 53 percent voter turnout. The counting of votes will begin at 8 am in 36 centres across the state, and election officials expect a clear picture about the outcome is likely to emerge by mid-day. There are elaborate security arrangements in place across the state, especially in and around the counting centres.
Will Congress triumph or is BJP set to break a poll jinx?
The Karnataka legislative assembly has 224 seats and a party has to reach the 113-majority mark to solidify its chances of forming a stable government. Political analysts have said the run-up to polling day had two phases – one dominated by the Congress before April 26 and the other by the BJP after this date.
Many owed the loss in momentum for the Congress to its manifesto promise of banning the Bajrang Dal and party president Mallikarjun Kharge’s “poisonous snake” remark for Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In turn, the saffron camp banked on the Modi juggernaut in the last leg of the campaigning; he attacked Sonia Gandhi for her misquoted “sovereignty” remark and elaborated on how the Congress had abused him “91 times”. The ruling party also pulled out the “double engine” development card, looking to break a 38-year-old poll jinx where the people have never voted the incumbent party to power.
A decisive victory in a state as politically complicated as Karnataka would bode well for the electoral future of the Congress ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. There is, however, no clarity about who will ascend to the chief minister’s chair if the party wins — between Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar, and now G Parameshwara being the latest entrant in this game.
Will JD(S) be kingmaker again?
Going by the pollsters, it could very well be a hung-assembly situation, which gives the JD(S) and its former prime minister HD Deve Gowda the chance to be the key to government formation yet again. In 2018, too, the party played its cards in such a way that the BS Yediyurappa-led BJP government lasted for only seven days despite emerging as the single largest party by winning 104 seats.
In the previous elections, the Congress won 78 seats while the JD(S) won 37. The BJP could not muster enough support to prove majority in the assembly and was, hence, replaced by a coalition government of Congress-JD(S) with Kumaraswamy as CM. But this arrangement lasted for only 14 months as the government witnessed mass defections to the BJP as 15 Congress and JD(S) MLAs resigned. This led to a collapse of the coalition government and the restoration of a BJP-led government in the state.
Other parties like the Aam Aadmi Party, which is in power in Delhi and Punjab, has also fielded candidates. But the three parties in the main fight have spelt out that they need a clear mandate to form a strong and stable government, unlike what happened after the 2018 polls.
What is the pulse of Karnataka?
Karnataka has mostly seen governments run by a single party with just four coalition governments. If we look at its electoral past, coalitions have failed to provide stability. But when it comes to the state’s caste arithmetic, it is clear on what, or rather who, drives the state politics.
The keywords of every election in Karnataka are Lingayat and Vokkaliga. These two communities, despite being in the other backward class category, have done much of the “power steering” in the state due to their sheer political dominance in terms of the number of chief ministers from both. Sixteen out of the 23 CMs have been from these two communities.
The Lingayats, in particular, have been most influential as the community has given nine CMs to the state since its reorganisation in 1956. Even the present CM, Basavaraj Bommai, is a Lingayat leader.
What were the voting figures in 2018?
In the 2018 elections, the Congress got a vote share of 38.04 percent, followed by the BJP at 36.22 percent and the JD(S) at 18.36 per cent. Since none of the parties won a clear majority, Yediyurappa staked claim and formed the government.
In the outgoing assembly, the ruling BJP has 116 MLAs. The Congress has 69 MLAs, the JD(S) 29, the BSP one, independents two, speaker one and six vacant seats following deaths and resignations.
(With PTI inputs)
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