No Ukraine Aid, Nationwide Abortion? If Republicans Win US Mid-terms, What America Could Look Like

All eyes are on the US mid-term elections and what result they will bring to a divided America on a host of domestic and some international issues. Republicans are on track to take control of the House, while the Senate is up for grabs. The Democrats have been warning of the ‘end of democracy’ in such a scenario, even as experts opine that a Red Win could pave the path for Trump again.

But the truth is far more complicated. News18 explains what could happen Republicans do win and what it would mean for a number of US policies:

Ukraine

If Republicans win control of Congress, one of the first litmus tests for their true intentions will be whether they support continued US military aid to Ukraine in its defence against this year’s brutal Russian invasion. Votes on aid to Ukraine are likely to reveal a sharp divide in a Republican-controlled Congress between traditional, hawkish Republicans who oppose the Russian invasion and have supported the Biden administration’s military aid to Ukraine, and a new and growing faction of the Christian evangelical movement known as Christian nationalists, many of whom admire Russian dictator Vladimir Putin and want to cut off American support for Ukraine, says the Intercept in a report.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene is one of the most outspoken supporters of Christian nationalism in Congress, and one of the few who uses the term openly. She spoke earlier this year at an event hosted by a white nationalist group, where many in the audience chanted, “Putin! Putin!”

Greene said last week at an Iowa rally that if Republicans take control of Congress, they will cut off funding for Ukraine. “Under Republicans, no more money will be sent to Ukraine.”

Meanwhile, Arizona state senator Wendy Rogers claimed in February that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was a “globalist puppet for Soros and the Clintons,” the report explains.

Republican congressional leaders, struggling to keep their fragile coalition of traditional Republicans and Christian evangelicals together, have been tight-lipped about why so many of their candidates are now opposed to aid to Ukraine. They refuse to discuss the growing power of Christian nationalism within the Republican Party. Instead, they argue that opposition to continued Ukrainian aid stems from growing American isolationism, budgetary constraints, and the prospect of a recession next year, the report states. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has argued that in a Republican-controlled House, aid to Ukraine will be cut because the government cannot afford to spend billions of dollars on it when there are so many economic problems at home.

Abortion

Abortion opponents on both sides of the aisle want national legislation on the issue. Abortion rights advocates have been pushing for the Women’s Health Protection Act, which would codify Roe v. Wade’s protections in federal law. That legislation was passed by the House in a largely symbolic vote last year, but it lacked the votes to overcome the Senate filibuster.

Anti-abortion activists are rallying behind legislation proposed by South Carolina Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham to outlaw abortion after 15 weeks.

Patrick Brown, a fellow at the conservative Ethics and Public Policy Center told the Atlantic that congressional Republicans will be hesitant to pass a nationwide abortion ban, especially since US President Joe Biden is unlikely to sign it into law. He believes they will first coalesce around proposals to prohibit transgender girls from participating in sports and gender-affirming surgery for minors, in part because those issues have proven “so galvanising” for cultural conservatives in red states.

Making Voting Tougher

Senator Rick Scott of Florida has proposed legislation that would impose many of the voting restrictions that have rapidly spread across red states for federal elections nationwide, including tougher voter-identification requirements, a ban on both unmonitored drop boxes and the counting of any mail ballots received after Election Day, and a prohibition on same-day and automatic voter registration.

Austerity Programme

Experts also believe Republican victories in the midterm elections could usher in a new era of austerity in American politics.

Congress is a major driver of economic demand, which keeps inflation high. “If Republicans win the House, Senate, or both, gridlock will ensue, limiting significant increases in federal spending,” they say. “Financial markets will view this as a less inflationary outcome,” Daniel Clifton, partner at Wall Street research firm Strategas, wrote this week.

The midterm elections, according to Axios Macro co-authors Neil Irwin and Courtenay Brown, “could create a new dynamic around US fiscal policy — including a return to intense standoffs around the debt ceiling and federal spending that tend to rattle markets and fuel uncertainty.”

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