Of all six regions, in the Mumbai/Kittur Karnataka, the Congress on Saturday received a substantial boost as it reversed the tally of the last assembly elections in 2018. Of the total 50 seats, the Congress had an edge in 33 constituencies, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is leading in 16 seats till 3 pm.
In the region, the Congress is soaring with around 44 % vote share, up by almost five-six per cent and 17 seats compared to the 2018 assembly elections, while the BJP’s vote share nosedived to around 38-39% and its seats went down by 14.
Apart from the high-profile defection of leaders such as Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, a rainbow coalition of Dalits, tribals and Muslims formed by the Congress against the consolidation of Lingayat votes for the BJP worked. An absolute concentration of Dalit, tribal and Muslim votes helped the Congress breach the Lingayat stronghold of the BJP, political analysts told News18.
Senior Congress leaders also admitted that the tribal, Dalit and Muslim coalition worked for them and the split in Lingayat community made it stronger.
“Corruption, unpopularity, anti-people decisions — all worked against the BJP. But we did not appeal for a caste-specific vote base. However, the poor and oppressed, including tribals, Dalits and Muslims, voted for us. The Lingayat community members also voted for us in the region,” said Ramalinga Reddy, KPCC working president and the state’s ex-home minister.
THE KEY FACTORS
There are multiple factors that made an absolute political flip in the Kittur region happen. “Of the several crucial factors that worked in favour of the Congress, a very significant one is the rainbow coalition of tribal, Dalits and Muslims. They solidly consolidated in support of the Congress. The BJP has been winning in the region for many elections now. The region, where the Lingayat community is seen to be the most dominant and deciding factor, remained a BJP fort until now,” said Sandeep Shastri, a senior political analyst and national coordinator, Lokniti Network.
“The departure of a tall Lingayat leader, Jagadish Shettar and the optics also made an impact on the Lingayat voters. So the Lingayat votes also did not consolidate in favour of the BJP like it did in the past elections. And apart from all these -specific equations, the anti-incumbency and unpopularity of state government played a very important role, which should not be ignored,” he added.
Prof. Muzaffar H. Assadi, acting vice-chancellor of University of Mysore and a political analyst, said that the government’s decision to abolish 2B reservation worked against the BJP.
“Raking up issues such as hijab or halal alienated a specific chunk of Muslim voters the party had in the region. The Muslims voted for PM Modi in the past election, but with all these anti-Islam issues, the community consolidated against the BJP. The decision of abolishing 2B reservation pushed them further away. The state government’s move to cancel reservations for Muslims under 2B of Other Backward Classes (OBC) category and bringing them to the Economically Weaker Section (EWS) quota caused resentment.”
In fact, the Lingayat community that used to vote in bulk for the BJP was also splintered after Shettar defected.
“There was a feeling of dejection among the community as they saw it like their leaders being mistreated,” he added.
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