US-China Cold War Next? What Will Happen if Beijing Decides to Arm Russia
US-China Cold War Next? What Will Happen if Beijing Decides to Arm Russia
Explained: The US has accused China of considering arming Russia in its war against Ukraine, ratcheting up tensions as the conflict hits its one-year mark

The Chinese manufacturer, the report said, has agreed to build and test 100 ZT-180 prototype drones before delivering them to Russia by April 2023. Each of the drones is reportedly able to carry between 35 to 50 kilogrammes of explosives.

The development comes amid recent claims by the US and NATO that China is considering supplying arms to Russia amid the Ukraine war. However, China has rubbished these allegations.

More About the Drones Report

As per an AFP report, Bingo is reportedly planning to send Russia components and know-how for Moscow to manufacture the drones onsite. Contacted by Spiegel, the Chinese foreign ministry denied armament supplies to Russia but did not address the specific allegation on drones.

It underlined however that NATO nations including the US are “the biggest source of weaponry for the battlefield in Ukraine”.

What US, NATO Have Said

The United States on Sunday accused China of considering arming Russia in its war against Ukraine, ratcheting up tensions as the conflict hits its one-year mark on Friday.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS that China was now “considering providing lethal support” to Moscow ranging “from ammunition to the weapons themselves.”

NATO has made a similar claim. And on Friday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg expressed scepticism regarding China’s plan to end the war in Ukraine, arguing that Beijing “doesn’t have much credibility”.

“On the proposals and the points presented by China, first of all: China doesn’t have much credibility because they have not been able to condemn the illegal invasion of Ukraine. And they also signed just days before the invasion an agreement… on a limitless partnership with Russia,” he told reporters in Tallinn.

What China Says

Earlier, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin told a regular press briefing that Washington, not Beijing, was “endlessly transporting weapons to the battlefield,” a clear allusion to the US supplying weaponry to Ukraine, a report by DW said.

Beijing, according to Wenbin, rejects Washington’s “finger-pointing on China-Russia relations, let alone coercion and pressure.”

What Chinese Analysts Say

According to Chinese analysts, China is unlikely to provide fatal weapons to aid Russia in its conflict in Ukraine, but it will not abandon its connection with Moscow or be able to prohibit supplies obtained through third parties, said a report by South China Morning Post.

Zhou Chenming, a researcher at the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank told SCMP that China supplying weapons to Russia is extremely unlikely, explaining that “Beijing is committed to maintaining its close economic partnership with the West.”

Chenming does China would “not insult” its Western trading partners, particularly the United States and the European Union, according to Zhou. He believed Blinken’s warning could be seen as a strategic deterrent to any potential supply of weapons.

China-US Tensions Build Up

Blinken provided no evidence to back up his claim of China’s plan to arm but it follows the pattern of Washington releasing sensitive information to preempt and disrupt Russian war plans, said a report by AFP.

“The fact that Mr Blinken has chosen to make his concerns public suggests that the US has robust intelligence,” Richard McGregor, a senior fellow for East Asia at the Lowy Institute in Sydney told AFP.

Why is Washington concerned? Throughout the war, Russia has struggled to muster enough personnel, munitions and weapons to overpower fierce Ukrainian resistance — forcing Putin to turn to mass conscription, mercenary groups and imports.

Meanwhile, Ukraine managed to halt the Russian juggernaut and even gain an upper hand. But some experts believe the war is at an inflexion point, with each side clamouring for resources and eying decisive gains as Winter moves into Spring.

Against this backdrop, an influx of Chinese weapons would be “a game-changer”, Mick Ryan, a strategist and retired Australian Army major general told AFP.

“This is a war of industrial systems. At the moment Russia is overmatched by the West. If China comes along, any advantage Ukraine had because of the industrial capacity of the West disappears instantly.”

Many experts believe there is a bigger game at hand, and see Ukraine becoming a Cold War-style proxy conflict.

“The war in Ukraine is crunch time for the international security environment, for the world order,” said Alexey Muraviev a professor of security and strategic studies at Perth’s Curtin University.

A Chinese decision to export weapons would be “a huge step” that risks Western sanctions, burns remaining bridges with Washington and scuttles ties with Europe.

With inputs from AFP

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