In recent years, ties between Russia and Pakistan have warmed a little. Maybe it is mild signalling to old friend India which is tending to have close ties with the United States. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced that the country received its first shipment of discounted Russian oil on June 12, 2023. Russian President Vladimir Putin decided to receive the then-Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan for a brief meeting in Moscow, a day before the beginning of Russia’s special operation in Ukraine in February 2022. It was the first visit of any Pakistani PM to Russia since 1999. Due to the general deterioration of Pakistan’s relations with the West and its closeness with rising China, Pakistani public opinion had swung in support of Russia. Pakistan abstained from voting as UN General Assembly attempted to censure Russia in March 2022. After the devastating floods in 2022, Russia provided material assistance to Pakistan. Pakistan’s reported support to Ukraine with weapons was not taken seriously.
Blow Hot Blow Cold Initial Years
In 1946, the Soviet Union had vehemently criticised the British partition of India and had labelled the Muslim League a tool of the British. Soviet Chairman Stalin did not send any congratulatory message to Jinnah on the formation of Pakistan. Moscow voted in favour of India in the United Nations in the initial years. The Marxist Soviet Union, which was atheistic, could not side with a staunchly Islamic country.
After Stalin, the initial Pakistani civilian governments tried to maintain good relations with the Soviet Union. But Pakistan joined the America-led Central Treaty Organisation (CENTO), a cold war military alliance in the 50s, and remained part of it till the alliance was dissolved in 1979. The relations became very cold after the US-backed 1958 coup d’état in which the military took over Pakistan. Military dictator Ayub Khan allowed the US to clandestinely fly the spy plane U-2 from Pakistani soil. Finally, in 1959, Soviet air defence shot down the U-2 flown by Gary Powers. This severely damaged the relations and the Soviets threatened to bomb Pakistan if such an operation took place in future.
After the 1965 Indo-Pakistan war and Soviet-sponsored “Tashkent Agreement”, there was a short rapprochement. Meanwhile, the Soviets also had closer relations with political parties in East Pakistan and took advantage of the anti-American sentiment there. Soviets backed the socialist Awami Party and played a decisive role in the 1971 War. They not only signed the Indo-Soviet Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation but supported Mukti Bahini. The Soviet Navy dispatched two groups of cruisers and destroyers and a nuclear submarine to trail US Task Force 74 in the Indian Ocean to avert US and Chinese threats to India.
In the 1980s, relations deteriorated once again during the Soviet-Afghan War, when Pakistan played a key role against the Soviet Union in support of American-backed Mujahideen. Due to the condemnation of Soviet actions in Afghanistan, Pakistan was one of the 80 countries that boycotted the 1980 Summer Olympics scheduled in Moscow.
Continuing India-Russian Close Relations
India–Russia has had very close strategic relations since the Soviet days. The Soviet Union helped India set up steel mills and power plants. They supported India in space and nuclear technology and helped set up the military-industrial complex. Even today, nearly 65 percent of India’s military equipment is of Russian origin. Despite procuring many military platforms from the West in recent years, particularly from the US, India keeps placing orders from Russia. More recent being the S-400 air defence system. Russia supported India by leasing a nuclear-powered submarine. BrahMos Aerospace is a major Indo-Russian joint venture. Russian AK 203 assault rifles are also being built in India.
India remained neutral and did not condemn Russia for the Ukraine conflict. Both India and Russia consider their mutual affinity to be a “special and privileged strategic partnership.” Both countries prefer creating a multipolar world order. In addition to the UN, both are members of BRICS, G20 and SCO. Russia supports India’s permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council. The bilateral trade target has been set at $50 billion for 2023. After the Ukraine conflict, a Rupee-Ruble exchange system has been put in place. Since January 2023, Russia has become India’s top oil supplier, replacing Iraq. Both have great interest in the North–South Transport Corridor through Iran. Russia is also supporting India’s manned space flight.
US-Pakistan Military Relations
Pakistan was once “America’s most allied ally in Asia” with shared interests in South and Central Asia. The US helped arm Pakistan’s military with modern weapons and fighter jets such as F-16. The militaries carried out many joint exercises and also cooperated in the war against militants. During the 20 years of war on terror, the US military operated from many military bases in Pakistan. Currently, there are no US bases in Pakistan. But often, the Pakistan Army double-crossed the Americans by backing terror groups in Afghanistan and also giving refuge to America’s most wanted terrorist, Osama Bin Laden.
The US has subjected Pakistan to a unilateral sanctions regime at several crucial junctures in the history of their bilateral ties. The Pressler Amendment, 1990, banned most economic and military assistance to Pakistan unless the US President certified on an annual basis that “Pakistan does not possess a nuclear explosive device.” More recently, the Trump administration prevented Pakistan from receiving the US International Military Education and Training (IMET) plan. The plan was later claimed to be restarted, but it has never been restored fully. The current US military relations with Pakistan have been replaced by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China. With worsening overall ties, Pakistan has been eager to embrace Moscow.
Geostrategic Shifts
Around 2002, with rising China, and competition shifting to Indo-Pacific, India was getting closer to the US. In 2003, Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf visited Moscow. The Russian PM-level visit took place in 2007. Meanwhile, the QUAD was formed in 2007, where India joined USA, Japan and Australia. India has an interest to check the rise of China, which continues to put pressure on India’s Line of Actual Control (LAC). Russia currently has little leverage to arm-twist China to lay off from India.
Pakistan has the gift of geography. It acts as a gateway southwest of the mighty Himalayas. It is important for Russia and China because of security and natural wealth interests in Central and West Asia. Afghanistan remains a geo-political playground. Despite the US withdrawal in the summer of 2021, all major powers, including the US, want a foot-hold or influence in the region.
Russia-Pakistan Political and Economic Relations
In 2016, Russia agreed to jointly build the 1,100 km gas pipeline from Karachi to Kasur, near Lahore, Pakistan. The $2.25 billion project cost has already risen due to inflation. In view of US pressure, it was decided that Russia would have ownership for the first 25 years so that it does not violate the US sanctions. Pakistani leaders are also increasingly nervous as their traditional alliance partners, including in the Arab World, tilt towards much larger player India.
Pakistan has also granted Russia access to the warm water port at Gwadar in the Arabian Sea. Since Pakistan joined the SCO in 2017, relations between both sides have become closer. Russian President Putin also declared Pakistan as one of its primary partners in South Asia and highly appreciated Pakistan’s position on the Russian-Ukrainian war at the UN and at the international level. The bilateral trade of Pakistan with Russia was just $388.492 million in the fiscal year 2021-22. The current trade is a little above $500 million. The Russia-Pakistan relationship has been acquiring a certain momentum in recent years. Both have launched a direct shipping service, for the first time, in a bid to increase trade, economic and energy ties between the two nations.
Pakistan-Russia Military Engagements
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov visited Pakistan in 2012, which was followed by Russian Defence Minister Shoigu’s visit in 2014. Russia lifted its arms embargo on Pakistan and supplied four Mi-35 attack helicopters. Pakistan also has 48 Mi-17 medium-lift helicopters. 2016 saw China, Pakistan and Russia come together to discuss Afghanistan. Russia-Pakistan have set up a commission on military-technical cooperation but no new arms deals have been announced as yet. A naval cooperation agreement was also signed in 2018.
The first annual joint exercise, “Druzhba” (friendship), between the Russian military and the Pakistan Army took place in October 2016 in Cherat, in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. India had requested Russia to call off the exercise as a gesture of “solidarity” following the Pakistani militant attack on the Indian Army base in Uri. But the exercise went through. In February 2021, Russian Navy ships took part in the maritime phase of the Pakistan-sponsored multinational naval exercise “Aman-2021.” In October 2021, the two conducted the sixth “Friendship-2021”, at the Molkino training ground in the Krasnodar Territory.
Pakistan-Russia Relations Too Small to Concern India
India’s trade with Russia is nearly 80 times more than Pakistan’s. India is a huge cash-rich economy while Pakistan is a debt-ridden country with serious payment imbalance issues. India’s single S-400 deal at $5.2 billion was equivalent to the previous ten years trade between Russia and Pakistan. Similarly, the defence deals in BrahMos, frigates, nuclear submarine, tanks, AK-203/103 rifles, etc makes the sum huge. Though with India diversifying arms imports, the Russian basket is slowly shrinking. But India’s crude oil imports from Russia surged to an all-time high in May 2023 to two million barrels per day. Even though Russia has become Pakistan’s third largest arms supplier, it clearly needs and engages with India much more. Russia-China closeness is of much greater concern to India. Russia will steer its relations with Pakistan very carefully so as not to antagonise India.
The bonhomie between Modi and Putin is at a very different level. The body language of the two leaders at the informal summit in Sochi in 2018 was watched around the world. Also, Russian foreign minister Lavrov visits India very frequently. Russia has been forced into Chinese arms by the West cornering it. It does not like the idea of being a junior partner to China. Russia would thus like to retain important alternative friends like India. Relations with India are time-tested and have got reinforced after the Ukraine conflict. Any Russia-China-Pakistan axis could push India further closer to the US and be detrimental to Russia. India too needs Russia on many counts to balance its global strategic autonomy. It has the leverage and influence to make Russia moderate towards Pakistan.
The writer is Director General, Centre for Air Power Studies. Views expressed are personal.
Comments
0 comment