New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party is set to win a near two-thirds majority of 122 seats in the 182-member Gujarat assembly, according to a survey released on Wednesday. The LensOnNews survey projected 53 seats for the Congress and just one seat for former chief minister Keshubhai Patel's Gujarat Parivartan Party. In the last election, the BJP had won 117 seats.
Six other seats could go to independents and other parties. According to the survey, the BJP is likely to secure 46 percent and the Congress 36 percent of votes, followed by six percent for GPP.
These are findings of a statewide opinion poll conducted by news research provider LensOnNews among a representative cross-sectional sample of 12,078 voters between November 28 and December 8. According to the survey, the Keshubhai-led GPP has taken away from the BJP a sizeable chunk of the numerically strong Leuva Patel vote in the Sourashtra region.
"Yet, it has neither helped the GPP winning seats (except in Visavadar where Keshubhai Patel is tipped to win) nor has it hurt the BJP in Sourashtra," the survey said. The projected tally for the BJP could swell beyond 130 seats if the state records either a high voter turnout of over 65 percent or the women's turnout matches or exceeds that of men, it said.
The survey said Chief Minister Narendra Modi enjoyed a significantly higher popularity among women than men. "Thus, higher participation of women in Gujarat can act as an antidote to the local level anti-incumbency factor or the caste factor ... on the strength of Modi's personal charisma."
It said the Congress was defensive throughout the campaign and "showed some aggression" in speech only towards the end when Congress president Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul descended on the state. It pointed out that the BJP had fielded strong candidates against all important Congress leaders, forcing them to stay put in their respective constituencies.
The first phase of Gujarat election will be held in 87 constituencies covering the entire Sourashtra region and south Gujarat on Thursday. Polling for the second phase will be held in 95 constituencies December 17.
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