Phulpur Lok Sabha Election 2024: BSP Set to Play Spoiler in The BJP vs SP Contest on This UP Seat

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The Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency comprises the following five Legislative Assembly segments: Phaphamau, Soraon (SC), Phulpur, Allahabad West, and Allahabad North.

The Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 80 parliamentary constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. It is a General category seat that includes part of the Allahabad district. The constituency comprises the following five Legislative Assembly segments: Phaphamau, Soraon (SC), Phulpur, Allahabad West, and Allahabad North. Voting will take place in the Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency in the sixth phase of polls on May 25. The counting of votes will take place on June 4.

Current MP: Keshari Devi Patel of BJP since 2019, preceded by Keshav Prasad Maurya of the BJP (2014) and Kapil Muni Karwariya of BSP (2009)

Candidates: Praveen Patel (BJP), Amaranth Maurya (Samajwadi Party), Jagannath Path (Bahujan Samaj Party)

Political Dynamics

BJP May Sail Through

In Phulpur, the BJP has replaced Keshari Devi Patel with Praveen Patel, the Phulpur MLA. Praveen Patel joined the BJP before the 2017 assembly elections and won the Phulpur assembly seat in both the 2017 and 2022 elections. Beginning his political career in 2007, Patel initially won from the Jhunsi segment on a BSP ticket but was defeated in the 2012 assembly elections.

Praveen Patel is seen as a non-controversial leader with an honest image by post of his constituents. The party’s worker base has been campaigning enthusiastically for this new face. It must be noted that the BJP won this seat for the first time in 2014 when Keshav Prasad Maurya won it with a massive lead of 3.08 lakh votes with vote share of 52.4% against the SP’s 20.3% and BSP’s 17%. The party has been holding on to the seat ever since. In 2019, the party’s lead narrowed down to 1.72 lakh votes under Keshari Devi Patel and a vote share of 56.1% against the SP-BSP which scored 38.4% of the vote

However, while there is some discontentment among the people about the local administration and inefficiency of government officials, politically, the seat continues to tilt in favour of the BJP. Several factors are in play, including the caste equation, the absence of an alliance between the SP and the BSP and the Modi factor.

In terms of caste equations in Phulpur, Patel voters play a decisive role, with approximately 300,000 Patel voters, followed by 275,000 Yadav voters, 250,000 Brahmins, and 250,000 SC/ST voters. There are also 85,000 Kayasthas and 70,000 each of Maurya and Pal voters.

This election, the Patel community is expected to lean towards the BJP favouring Praveen Patel who is from the same caste. Moreover, the BJP also holds tremendous sway among Dalit as well as general caste voters, including the sizeable population of Brahmin voters. A split in the Maurya vote is expected due to a Maurya on the ballot, fielded by the SP.

The fact that the SP and the BSP are not in an alliance is also playing out favourably for the BJP. In 2017, when the BJP formed the state government, Keshav Prasad Maurya was made Deputy CM and resigned from his MP position in Phulpur. However, after the grand victory in the 2017 assembly elections, the party faced a setback when in the 2018 by-elections, the SP-BSP alliance resulted in the defeat of the BJP, with SP’s Nagendra Singh Patel winning the Phulpur Lok Sabha seat. While a low voter turnout was a significant reason, it demonstrated the threat faced from the SP-BSP alliance. Then two years later, the BJP reworked its calculations and stepped up its campaign to facilitate a major victory in Phulpur against the SP-BSP alliance, but could not replicate the 3 lakh vote margin registered in 2014. This time around, with now such opposition alliance in play, the BJP is comfortably placed despite a creeping sense of anti-incumbency.

In the Assembly elections of 2022, the BJP bagged four seats while the SP bagged one, even as the SP’s vote share came close to that of the BJP with 37.1% against the saffron party’s 38%. The BSP secured almost 10% of the vote, depicting how effective a split in the anti-BJP vote can be for the BJP. Meanwhile, the Congress bagged about 3% of the votes.

Further, the Modi-Yogi double-engine government is appreciated for a slew of development work that has taken place in the region, including enhanced connectivity and improved facilities and overall safety at the Kumbh Mela. Improvement in the law and order situation is cited by most voters who recall a time when gangsters roamed fearlessly, including Atiq Ahmed who was infamous in the Prayagraj district.

Moreover, widespread implementation of welfare schemes including the Awas Yojana, Garib Kalyan Yojana, Ayushman Bharat, Kisan Samman Nidhi and so on, have favourably placed the party among a large section of beneficiaries. The Modi wave, though not as pronounced as in 2019, has been described as an undercurrent by local observers and is expected to play a huge role in urban areas like Allahabad North and West, where the party tends to register huge leads.

SP’s Gamble

The SP is a faced with a significant challenge in Phulpur, which had formerly been a bastion of the party. With the BSP out of the SP-Congress INDIA alliance, the contest for Phulpur is doomed to become a triangular one, largely coming at the cost of the opposition and to the benefit of the BJP.

In 2019, in alliance with the BSP, the SP had fielded Pandhari Yadav with an eye on Yadav votes and a larger Muslim-Yadav vote consolidation. However, this proved to not be enough as the BJP managed a lead of 1.72 lakh votes. This time around, with the Yadav and Muslim vote banks locked in, the SP has fielded Amaranth Maurya to leverage his position among Maurya voters who had for the last two elections been leaning towards the BJP. Notably, during his tenure in the BJP, he was known to have close ties with Deputy Chief Minister Keshav Prasad Maurya. It is for this reason that his selection is being seen as a strategic move by Akhilesh Yadav.

Amarnath Singh Maurya is currently the State Secretary of the Samajwadi Party. He has previously served as the President of District Cooperative Bank Limited Prayagraj-Kaushambi. Prominent SP leader Swami Prasad Maurya, who has a close association with him, facilitated his entry into the Samajwadi Party in 2022. Earlier in his career, Amarnath Singh Maurya spent a significant amount of time in the BSP and even contested the 2002 elections from the Allahabad West assembly seat as a BSP candidate.

The SP is banking on the MY equation, combined with Maurya votes to improve its vote share in the constituency. Muslim voters make up about 14%, while Yadavs roughly make up another 14%.

Moreover, the party is also banking on anti-incumbency to make a mark on polling day. SP has been raising issues like unemployment, inflation, and the problems faced by farmers and youth will drive the public to vote for the INDIA alliance. The SP leader claims that the Phulpur seat has often been held by the Samajwadi Party and believes it will go to the INDIA alliance this time as well.

Meanwhile, the BSP has fielded Jagannath Pal, who is the divisional in-charge of the party in Phulpur. Pal is targeting Pal voters apart from the traditional Jatav stronghold of the BSP. The larger the BSP’s vote share, the more detrimental it is expected to be for the SP primarily, which makes this contest an interesting one.

Key Issues

Unemployment and Emigration

Phulpur itself has a lower number of industries in comparison to the neighbouring constituency of Allahabad which means that the issue of unemployment is more pronounced in the region. Agriculture is the major source of employment and income for a majority of the households, however, due to the increasing number of issues in regards to agriculture, the people, especially the youth, are disenchanted. They prefer moving to major urban centres such as Allahabad or further away to Kanpur and Lucknow in search of better opportunities.

Drinking Water Crisis

In Phulpur, areas in the hinterland and some localities in the city like Jafarganj, Mullana, Kaithana, Kohna, Pura Achai experience recurring water scarcity, especially during summer. Piped water has not reached rural areas which creates issues for the public. People have complained that the setting up of pipelines and borewells in the rural areas has taken time and must be completed as quickly as possible as the summers are here which would exacerbate the needs of the people.

Farmer Issues

The region’s agricultural sector is hindered by a lack of basic infrastructure, making farming a challenging endeavor. Farmers struggle with inadequate irrigation systems, rising costs for inputs like electricity, water, and fertilisers, significantly impacting their profitability. Small-scale farmers are particularly vulnerable, facing difficulties in navigating complex government procurement processes and often forced to sell their produce to local traders at lower prices. This practice leads to reduced earnings, sometimes financial losses, and a growing debt burden, especially for those who rely on high-interest loans from local moneylenders. It also leads to increasing debt burden in the region. It is mostly the small farmers who are impacted the most.

Inflation

Inflation has been a major talking point in Phulpur Lok Sabha constituency and will be a key election issue. According to onground reports, the populace is not wowed with how the political parties have made religion an issue instead of issues like inflation. Rising prices of staple kitchen items has impacted a number of households especially as income has not been able to keep up with the rising costs of goods.

Traffic Issues

Traffic congestion is a major issue in Phulpur city. The road infrastructure has failed to keep up with the rising population in the region. There has also been a rise in the number of private vehicles as people do not deem the public transportation to be adequate to deal with the demands of the people. Moreover, increasing population has also led to unplanned development due to which encroachment of government land along the roads has become a major issue contributing to the problem of traffic. In addition, footpaths have been occupied by hawkers, the homeless, and the migrant workers who have nowhere to turn to.

Roads

Roads in the city are in dilapidated condition and have added to the issue of traffic congestion in the region. Moreover, road connectivity to rural areas is a major issue. In the rural areas there is a lack of all weather roads which get washed off during the rains which make it extremely harder for people to move about. People in the region have time and again demanded for better roads and the government has promised to solve the issue, and work is already underway.

Civic Infrastructure

The lack of civic infrastructure especially in the rural areas has been a major issue for the residents. There is a lack of speciality hospitals in the rural areas and a lack of educational institutions. Youth considering higher studies have to migrate to Allahabad, Varanasi, or Delhi. The dilapidated condition of the roads and electricity are also major issues which the people want addressed.

Infrastructure Development

Prayagraj ring road

The initial phase involves building a 29.8-km ring road in two years, from Sahson to Dandupur. The government has allocated approximately INR 500 crore for land acquisition compensation, with around INR 300 crore earmarked for private landowners. The total length of the ring road will be 65 kms and will also help in easing connectivity with Phulpur region.

Amrit Bharat

Phulpur has been selected as one of the stations under the Central government’s Amrit Bharat scheme. This will provide improved infrastructure and passenger facilities and will also transform the station into a logistical hub.

Railway Infrastructure

Infrastructural projects include installing escalators and lifts at various stations, providing stainless steel benches, upgrading facilities at Bamhrauli and Prayagraj stations, and implementing computer-based reservation systems. The focus extends to enhancing safety and operations, with improvements to platform surfaces, water booths, and reservation systems, as well as the installation of CCTV cameras and the development of disaster management assets. Furthermore, efforts are underway to improve the efficiency of operations, including the extension of platforms, the development of a centralised enquiry system, and the upgrading of infrastructure in coaching yards.

Purvanchal Expressway

It is a 340 km long, 6 lane high speed highway which connects Lucknow to Ghazipur. The expressway will help in improving the intra connectivity of the region and will help boost the economic development. Phulpur is not directly connected to the highway but will be able to take advantage of it.

Prayagraj-Dohrighat Corridor Project

The project is a major game changer under the PM Gati-Shakti plan, which will help boost inter connectivity in the Prayagraj, Jaunpur and Azamgarh districts of Uttar Pradesh. The project will be completed in 4 packages. It connects Purvanchal Expressway, 11 national highways, two state highways, five railway stations, two airports and will help alleviate traffic conditions in 5 major commercial centres in the region including Phulpur.