New Delhi: West Bengal, Bihar and Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala together account for 232 Lok Sabha seats. If we combine all seven states, no single national party is leading after the first two rounds of the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll which covered East and South India.
Combining the seat projections of East and South India as provided by Chennai Mathematical Institute's Director Professor Rajeeva Karandikar, the picture of the next Lok Sabha seems to be that of a hung Parliament.
The BJP may win 22-40 seats from the two regions while the Congress tally is likely to be 36-72. Remaining parties are restricted to a particular state and have no influence in other states. It clearly shows that, if Narendra Modi wants to become the PM, the BJP will have to sweep the North and West India.
While the BJP is doing extremely well in Bihar and is a major player in Karnataka, it has a very small footprint Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. The party is almost non-existent in Kerala.
Another national party the Congress is not doing well in most of the states with only Karnataka and Kerala giving it thumbs up. Most of the states have a strong regional party who are likely to play a crucial role in government formation after the next Lok Sabha elections.
For Jharkhand and Assam, both with 14 Lok Sabha MPs each, there is no seat projection due to the small sample size. While the BJP is likely to get 40 per cent of the votes in Jharkhand and lead its rivals by a huge margin, in Assam it is the Congress which will get 47 per cent of the votes per the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll.
Total 232 Lok Sabha in Bihar, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala (Region wise combined projected seats):
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP): 22-40
Congress: 36-72 (Includes UDF's projected tally in Kerala)
Janata Dal United (JDU): 7-13
Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD): 6-10
Trinamool Congress (TMC): 20-28
Left Front: 9-21 (Includes LDF's projected tally in Kerala)
Biju Janata Dal (BJD): 10-16
Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS): 4-8
YSR Congress Party (YSRCP): 11-19
Telugu Desam Party (TDP): 9-15
Janata Dal Secular (JDS): 4-8
All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK): 15-23
Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK): 7-13
Others: 4-14
Projected seats state wise (January 2014)
Bihar (40)
BJP: 16-24
JDU: 7-13
RJD: 6-10
Congress: 0-4
Odisha (21)
BJD: 10-16
Congress: 3-9
BJP: 0-4
West Bengal (42)
TMC: 20-28
Left Front: 7-13
Congress: 5-9
BJP: 0-2
Andhra Pradesh (42)
YSR Congress Party: 11-19
TDP: 9-15
Congress: 5-9
TRS: 4-8
Others: 0-4
Karnataka (28)
Congress: 10-18
BJP: 6-10
JDS: 4-8
Tamil Nadu (39)
AIADMK: 15-23
DMK: 7-13
Congress: 1-5
Others: 4-10
Kerala (20)
UDF: 12-18
LDF: 2-8####
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