Is the Shiv Sena headed for the first-ever vertical split in the party this time as senior leader Eknath Shinde powers a rebellion with his loyalists?
The Shiv Sena-NCP-Congress alliance, which currently rules Maharashtra under the chief minister-ship of Uddhav Thackeray, has 152 MLAs — 55 from Shiv Sena, 53 from NCP and 44 from Congress — as its core strength. The alliance also claims support from some smaller parties and independents.
The alliance government, in office since November 2019, is witnessing a survival crisis currently as Shinde claims the support of over 40 MLAs. If one goes by the party’s history, the Shiv Sena is witnessing the first very real chances of a major vertical split in the party.
True, it saw similar incidents in the past as well but the numbers are big this time as the rebel MLAs camp in Guwahati.
The figure of over 40 means more than enough numbers to legally defect from the party under the mandate of the Anti-defection Law, 1985. Shiv Sena currently has 55 members in the assembly and as per the law, if 37 MLAs decide to defect from the party, either for merging in another party like BJP or for forming a new party, they are legally entitled to do so.
The Act prevents the political trend of leaving and joining political parties at will, mostly through corrupt practices. It is applicable to both Parliament and state assemblies.
Under the Act, in state assemblies, if an MLA or a group of MLAs of a political party defy the party line or voluntarily resign, they are disqualified and lose their assembly membership. They are disqualified if they decide to vote against the party line, or if they decide to join another party. In a sentence, a legislator cannot violate the party whip — unless the group of resigning MLAs have numbers.
The risk of disqualification is lost when numbers are in favour when two-thirds of the legislators of a political party decide to defect. This means the BJP, the political opposition in the state, needs the support of 40 MLAs.
It is not the first time the Shiv Sena is witnessing defections in the party but it will be the first big jolt to the party since the 1991 turmoil.
In December 1991, Chhagan Bhujbal, considered close to Bal Thackeray, threatened to split the party with 17 of 52 MLAs. Bhujbal was upset with Manohar Joshi’s increasing stature in the party and said he wanted to form Shiv Sena(B). Then Speaker Madhukarrao Chaudhary received a letter announcing the decision to leave the party and accepted it. Bhujbal was immediately sacked by Bal Thackeray. Sixteen MLAs who also left the party later wanted to retract but the Speaker didn’t accept it. Bhujbal later joined the Congress.
The second incident came in July 2005 after a direct fight between Narayan Rane and Uddhav Thackeray. Rane saw Uddhav Thackeray’s emergence eclipsing his political life and wanted to split the party with 40 of 62 MLAs, an attempt finally foiled by the Shiv Sena. Later, 12 MLAs defied the party whip and joined the Congress along with Rane. While the party did not see it as a major split, it lost a mass leader with extensive political experience. Rane was made minister in the NCP-Congress government led by Vilasrao Deshmukh.
The third incident also came in 2005, again stemming from a leadership tussle. The face this time was Bal Thackeray’s heir apparent and Uddhav Thackeray’s cousin, Raj Thackeray. Raj quit the Shiv Sena in December 2005 but clarified that he did want to engineer a split in the party though many parliamentarians and MLAs were ready to join him.
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