Will the southern states vote for change today?

Chennai/Thiruvanathapuram: As the politically volatile Tamil Nadu and Kerala vote to elect their next governments on Wednesday, one party that is sure of putting up a good show - and even gain from anti-incumbency in both the southern states - is the Indian National Congress. While Tamil Nadu promises to be a close race between the DMK and the AIADMK thereby giving Congress a much larger say in case of a fractured verdict, there are strong chances of Kerala swinging towards the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) alliance.

The two southern states will go to the assembly polls on Wednesday with 6.91 crore voters expected to decide the fate of the rival fronts, locked in a bitter race for supremacy. The union territory of Puducherry, currently under a Congress regime, will also go to polls on Wednesday.

DMK chief M Karunanidhi, aware of the close race in Tamil Nadu, has already hinted at a coalition government in the state. AIADMK supremo J Jayalalithaa, despite putting up a brave face during her campaigning, also can't deny the fact that the elections this year in Tamil Nadu are too close to call. This has made Congress upbeat in the state. The party, despite its alliance with DMK, might keep its options open and join AIADMK to form the government.

For octogenarian chief ministers M Karunanidhi and V S Achuthanandan, both 87, this might be the swan song of their electoral battle. In Tamil Nadu, ruling-DMK led front is battling all odds with the AIADMK-combine launching an all out offensive to dislodge Karunanidhi, veteran of many a successful electoral battle in his seven decades of public life.

In neighbouring Kerala, another battle-scarred veteran, Achuthanandan, is trying to buck the trend of electorate voting alternately between LDF and UDF once in five years. In Puducherry, the Congress-led combine, including DMK

and PMK, is facing a tough challenge from the front led by former chief minister N Rangasamy's All India NR Congress that has AIADMK in its fold.

Being pillars of their respective fronts, the wheel-chair bound Karunanidhi and CPM stalwart Achuthanandan, sprightly despite his age, have both campaigned intensely turning the clock back. The main rival for DMK is the Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK which has sewed up a formidable alliance.

Both Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa had confidently asserted during a no-holds-barred campaign that their party would form the next government. In what is seen as a do-or-die battle for Jayalalithaa, the AIADMK leader has sought to whip up anti-incumbency sentiments, asking people to end 'family rule' of Karunanidhi.

Polls in Tamil Nadu this time, described as 'challenging' by Chief Election Commissioner S Y Quraishi himself, have come under EC's microscopic scrutiny following allegations of free flow of money by the ruling party to lure voters.

In the politically-polarised Kerala where marginal swings could turn the tide either way, ruling CPM-led LDF is battling Congress-headed UDF. Initially, the odds appeared stacked against LDF going by the political trends reflected in the Lok Sabha and civic polls in which UDF acquitted itself remarkably.

In Kerala, CPM is trying hard to save its only government in the south. Though there were bickerings over the renomination of Achuthanandan in the run-up to the elections, the CPM high command had intervened to settle the issue in favour of the octogenarian leader.

But LDF got a big boost after the end of uncertainty over entry of Achuthanandan who now seems to have taken the fight to the UDF camp in his characteristic aggressive style. The electoral battle is intense in all 140 segments with no wave palpable in favour of either LDF or UDF.

In both Kerala and Tamil Nadu, BJP is striving to open its legislative account. Political heavyweights among 2,773 candidates in the fray for 234 assembly seats in Tamil Nadu include Karunanidhi (Tiruvarur), Jayalalithaa (Srirangam), Karunanidhi's son and Deputy Chief Minister M K Stalin (Kolathur) and DMDK actor-founder Vijayakanth (Rishivanyam).

The DMK is contesting 119 seats,leaving 63 to Congress, 30 to PMK, 10 to Viduthalai Chirutagal Katchi, seven to Kongu Munnetra Katchi, three to IUML and one each to Moovendar Munnetra Kazhagam and Perunthalaivar Katchi.

AIADMK has fielded candidates in 162 segments, allocating 41 seats to DMDK, 12 to CPI-M, 10 to CPI, three to Manithaneya Makkal Matchi, two to All India Samuthuva Makkal Katchi, one each to AIFB, All India Movendar Munnetra Kazhagam, RPI and KonguIlaginar Peravai.

A total of 971 candidates are in the fray in Kerala, a majority of them independents. The state has a total electorate of 2.31 crore.

These are the first polls in Kerala after NRIs got voting rights. However, only 8,862 NRIs have registered as voters while an estimated 2.2 million Keralites are working abroad, mostly in Gulf countries.

High-profile candidates in Kerala include Achuthanandan (Malampuzha), UDF's chief ministerial probable Oommen Chandy (Puthupally), KPCC president Ramesh Chennithala (Harippad), CPI-M Politburo member Kodiyeri Balakrishnan (Thalassery), Muslim League leader P K Kunhalikutty (Vengara), Kerala

Congress (M) supremo K M Mani (Pala) and senior BJP leader O Rajagopal (Nemom).

Over 8.10 lakh voters are expected to exercise their franchise in Puducherry for the 30-member assembly where ruling Congress is contesting 17 seats.

On the rival side, the All India NR Congress has fielded candidates in 17 seats and its partner AIADMK in 10. Congress's main ally DMK is contesting ten seats.

The main contestants are Assembly Speaker R Radhakrishnan, Chief Minister V Vaithilingam and all his five ministerial colleagues, Puducherry unit's DMK convener and former chief minister R V Janakiraman, and Rangasamy, who is

chief ministerial candidate of the rival front.

There are in all 187 contestants including 78 independents in the fray in Puducherry.

(With inputs from PTI)