The dramatic turn of events in Bangladesh – Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s resignation and fleeing the country following deadly protests against her government over a controversial quota system in jobs and the appointment of Mohammad Yunus – may impact India’s trade, security and diplomatic ties with Dhaka, according to top government sources.
Nobel laureate Yunus was on Tuesday appointed as the head of Bangladesh’s interim government by President Mohammed Shahabuddin, a day after Hasina’s exit.
“All these developments are not very positive. An invisible hand worked behind her removal and it could possibly guide the new government too. The new leadership will have new realignments in the region and it may be a challenge for India to gain unlimited trust," sources said, adding, “The Yunus-led government will evaluate its relationship with neighbours such as India and Pakistan and world powers like China and the USA and it may not necessarily be favourable towards India."
Dhaka is likely to give more space to the West and China, and India’s competition will increase in Bangladesh, as seen in Nepal and Sri Lanka, sources said. “With new government in place, Dhaka may also not want to resolve the long-standing water and border disputes. Border disputes such as exchanging of around 160 enclaves, boundary demarcation, fencing and border killings will remain. We also have problems in Tin Beegha Coordior and Mehuri River area and maritime disputes in Bay of Bengal. We have made extensive progress in these areas but conclusive results are pending," they added.
The Indian side is also likely to see Rohingya crisis. “The influx will increase and as Yunus and new group are close to social and human right watchers, they will increase pressure on India. Any mistake along the border by India will be highlighted internationally," sources said.
Another issue for India is that the influx of these groups could lead to radicalisation. “At times, it is difficult to isolate them completely. In India, large colonies have come in many states and they have surrounded the areas in a particular pattern," they said.
Moreover, there is great coordination between the countries on counter-terrorism and Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) and National Security Intelligence (NSI), along with the Border Security Force (BSF) and Border Guard Bangladesh (BGB). “Given the change, India will now face a major challenge while repeating an operation such as the 2019 ban on Jamaat-ul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB)," they said.
Most importantly, India will have to seek complete safety of Hindus in Bangladesh without any condition, sources said.
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