Pakistan Election Suspense Is Far From Over. The Message From Counting Centres Is Loud And Clear

Midday results emerging from Pakistan make one thing clear: the embattled country stalked by an acute economic crisis and polarisation looks set for another spell of uncertainty that could ensnare the whole gamut of its political apparatus, trigger social shock waves, and call for judicial interventions.

The keenly watched national election was supposed to bring a semblance of stability to the least (and restore the throne of former prime minister Nawaz Sharif of the PML-N party), after a tumultuous period of nearly two years since the April 2022 ouster of then-premier Imran Khan. Instead, as analysts observe, it has thrown a big surprise and sparked many questions, with Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party claiming that it was set for a landslide victory. And here lies the conundrum. The script was not meant for this. In fact, it was straight and simple: send Khan and his party to the wilderness, then hold “free and fair” elections, and install a government that would get along with the military and its boss, General Asim Munir.

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After Khan was deposed by a no-confidence vote in Parliament, pieces in Pakistan’s political chessboard moved swiftly and new alignments came to the fore. In came Sharif, who had an infamous falling out with the military in the past. The three-time premier returned to his country in October, ending a four-year self-imposed exile in the UK. Meanwhile, Khan was jailed in at least three separate cases. No wonder a strong showing by the PTI would upset many equations.

A disclaimer here: these are early days and anything can happen hereon. The Western media is viewing the election as one of the most compromised ones in Pakistan’s volatile history. The counting process has been marred by allegations of rigging — and, if social media chatter is to be believed in the backdrop of restricted information flow in mainstream media, the military has intervened, with counting coming to a halt after independent candidates backed by Khan’s PTI took early leads.

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Pakistan’s interim government has slapped the 71-year-old Khan and many of his prominent colleagues with cases after cases, making sure that the PTI — which claims massive public support, especially among the youth — was down and out ahead of the elections. Khan, who cosied up to conservative Islamic elements during his tenure, is said to have fallen out with the country’s powerful military, which considered him a darling before his 2018 coronation. The cricket star-turned-politician gave Pakistan their first Cricket World Cup trophy, but he lost his “cricket bat” election symbol in the run-up to voting. In Thursday’s election, many from the PTI camp contested the polls as independent candidates, and with different symbols.

In this context, the trends beget complex questions: will Pakistan’s deep state allow Khan to run away with the election or will it intervene with an iron fist? If there are reports of more interference, what will be the PTI response? Will they take such a blow lying down or will they hit the streets (a May 2023 attack by PTI supporters against army establishments and widespread rioting are at the centre of the party’s many legal woes)? Will there be legal challenges or prolonged protests causing social upheavals? Even if the PTI wins — there is a big if here — how will all its independents come together since they have contested with different symbols? Most importantly, will the PTI be able to keep the independent flock together?

“The die is cast. If the final results show anything other than a PTI victory, PTI will reject it as a rigged result, and understandably so: Its early gains led to a long delay in announcing final results. The military, intent on denying power to the PTI, intervened in the process,” says analyst Michael Kugelman, the South Asia Institute Director at non-governmental organisation The Wilson Center.

“But in a scenario under which PTI loses the election, the victor will claim PTI’s early gains were too preliminary to be accurate, and that its own victory is legitimate. For the PTI, this explanation would amount to a cover up of a massive final-hour election rigging exercise,” he shares in an X post.

He also mentions what he describes as a key caveat. “Even if the PTI were declared the winner, the situation would be tricky, because its candidates had to run as independents. It would need to ensure that these winning independents don’t align with other parties. The establishment would likely pressure them to do so,” he says in a long thread.

In the event of a smooth sailing for Sharif, the world would have known what to expect: a new government with old faces high on hopes, but facing monumental challenges in the form of a sluggish economy, poverty, extremism and a festering Baloch insurgency after a compromised election that saw a voter turnout of around 40%. More or less, that would have meant status quo in Pakistan’s choppy polity. But if the PTI’s march of the independents continues, it could throw Pakistan into an uncharted territory. What would emerge from there is anyone’s guess. Election over, suspense on.