India’s Q3 GDP Growth Data: The official gross domestic product (GDP) data for Q3FY24 is scheduled to be released on Thursday, February 29, by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Though the RBI expects India’s Q3 GDP growth at 6.5 per cent, various analysts peg the Q3 economic growth between 6 per cent and 7 per cent.
Rating agency Icra expects India’s GDP to grow 6 per cent in Q3FY24, State Bank of India (SBI) sees a 6.8-7 per cent growth, and the RBI sees the country’s GDP growth at 6.5 per cent in the October-December 2023 quarter.
Ratings agency ICRA in its note said projected GDP growth is likely to have moderated sequentially to 6 per cent in the third quarter of FY24 from 7.6 per cent in the preceding three months, mainly due to subdued performance of agriculture and industrial sectors.
The GVA growth is estimated to ease to 6 per cent in Q3 FY2024 from 7.4 per cent in Q2 FY2024, driven by the industrial (to +8.8 per cent from +13.2 per cent) and agriculture (to +0.5 per cent from +1.2 per cent) sectors, amidst an improvement in services (to +6.5 per cent from +5.8 per cent), according to the ICRA report.
“The anticipated deterioration in the industrial sector growth in Q3 FY2024 is partly attributable to an adverse base effect (+2.3 per cent in Q3 FY2023 as against -0.5 per cent in Q2 FY2023) and a deceleration in volume expansion (IIP growth of 5.8 per cent in Q3 FY2024 vs. 7.8 per cent in Q2 FY2024), even as the continued deflation in commodity prices kept profitability of some sectors favourable,” ICRA said.
SBI Research in its report forecasts Q3 FY24 GDP growth at 6.8 per cent, based on an unchanged base, but could potentially hit 7 per cent due to expected downward revisions in the estimates for Q3 FY23.
“The CLI Index (a basket of 41 leading indicators which includes parameters from almost all the sectors) based on monthly data shows a slight moderation in economic activity in Q3,” SBI Research says in its latest Ecowrap note.
Full-Year GDP Growth Estimates
According to the government’s first estimates, the Indian economy will grow at 7.3 per cent in FY24, which is higher than the RBI’s upwardly revised estimate of 7 per cent.
The World Bank expects the Indian economy to grow 6.3 per cent in FY24, while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised its estimate from 6.3 percent to 6.5 per cent.
In the preceding quarter ended September 2023 (Q2 FY24), India’s GDP had grown 7.6 per cent y-o-y. The Q3 FY24 GDP growth was more than what was expected by analysts.
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