As Pakistan braces for the May 11 national elections, this will be the first time that a democratically elected government has completed its full term and elections are being held on time. So how are the odds stacked up? Can President Zardari's PPP beat the anti-incumbency wave? Or are Imran Khan's PTI and Nawaz Sharif's PML-N poised to put up a formidable fight? What are the main issues? Pakistani political analyst Ayesha Siddiqa joined IBNLive readers for an interaction on the issue.
Q. Why is Bhutto Jr missing? Will he get more control over party after turning 25 or he has to waait till next election? Asked by: Neel
A. Bhutto Jr is missing because of security reasons. As we speak the youngest son of former PM Yusuf Raza Gillani has been kidnapped by terrorists. So security situation is bad. However, it is also a fact that young Bilawal has no feel for politics like his mother. He is sadly being trained by his father who has no capacity to do people's politics or connect with them.
Q. I think Kidnapping of Gilani's Son is planned by PPP to counter the sympathy votes which Imran kahn would have got for his injury. What your take..otherwise I don't think its easy to kidnap a person like Gilani's son even in Pakistan just days before election day. Asked by: Minal
A. That's a very sad commentary because PPP was one of the parties threatened by the Taliban and this is possible in Multan which is part of South Punjab that, in turn, is full of jihadi/Taliban assets. The kidnapping is as real as Imran Khan's fall and its silly publicity by his party. There are four men killed. Plz have a heart and get real about the situation.
Q. Is the current ruling party has any chance of winning the election or Pakistan will see a new party in the center after the elections. Asked by: Gaji
A. The PPP has as much chance to head a weak coalition as the PML-N. The PTI may have a problem because it will have ideological issues forming coalition with the PPP, PML-N or MQM.
Q. Gilani's Son kidnapped..who may be the kidnapper..who they might be..Taliban? What impact it will have on the polls which is just days away.. Asked by: Rohit
A. The Taliban or their jihadi friends who have good relations with the military establishment. This will naturally spoil the situation in Multan at least.
Q. In case of hung assembly do you think PPP and PML-N will form an alliance? Asked by: Neel
A. The PPP will try forming government with other parties. The army does not want PML-N to be center-stage. Depending on what Zardari's calculations are we could see an alliance between the two as well.
Q. Can India expect the new government in Pakistan to act against Terrorists that act against India aka likes of Hafiz Saeed. Asked by: DN
A. No this will not happen at least not in the near future.
Q. Former Pak premier's son Gilani has been kidnapped din Multan and two killed. Is Violence the major language of Pakistan politics? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Didn't use to be, these elections are different.
Q. With Musharraf, under arrest..is his party Pakistan Muslim League will be able to pose an threat for any other party? Asked by: Duna
A. He is history for Pak politics. His party has announced boycott of elections. Even if they didn't he could not have made it anywhere. No successes for a dictator's party.
Q. The accidental fall of Imran Khan will have an impact? Will it gain or lose out of this fall? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Seems that they are playing the fall caused by the silliness of his management, to the hilt. It may result in gains for him.
Q. Unfortunately Pakistan is controlled from the background by Fundamentalist and Pakistan Army. Do you the next government would be able to survive too long? Asked by: Nagarajan
A. The idea seems to be to have a hung Parliament that does not interfere much with 2014 negotiations. They want it to be a weak Parliament.
Q. Kofi Annan says that 60 percent elections are not genuinely democratic. Whether Pakistan falls in the other 40 percent? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Pakistan is a democracy in transition so won't comment on Kofi Annan's categorization even elections in India have violence and not perfect. In Pakistan's case there is backdoor interference by the military as well. Things will improve as we gain greater experience.
Q. What will be China's expectations out of this election? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Any Pak government will play ball with China.
Q. Which party if elected to govern can maintain good relations with both Afghan and India and bring peace to the sub continent. Asked by: sundar1950in
A. PPP and PML-N have a plan for improving relations with India and Afghanistan but not PTI. Talk to people like Shireen Mazari who is one of PTI leaders and you can see how far is the party from accommodating the idea of peace with India.
Q. Pakistani youth seems to be very excited about election. They have high level of expectations. Do you think new government will do much better job because of conscious youth? Asked by: Neel
A. The new Pakistan will not be too different from the old one. Sadly there are too many expectations but little meat in the promises
Q. Which party has more gumption to take on the army in matters relating to India? Asked by: sk
A. PML-N
Q. Which party will be more friendly to BJP Govt in India in 2014 ? PPP or Nawaz Sheriff. Asked by: sk
A. The reality is that whoever is in India will have to deal with whoever forms the government in Pakistan and visa versa.
Q. Pakistan is the ley to the peaceful subcontinent..which part has given assurance to the Pakistan people that its committed to peace. Asked by: Raja
A. Its the political parties who have a plan but then get interrupted by the military establishment. The PPP and PML-N have a clear plan for peace in the Subcontinent. The major problem, however, with parties like PML-N is they have caught themselves in a bind through their relationship with some militant outfits. These parties must realize, like in India, that appeasing rightwing or militancy in general doesn't pay.
Q. What was the report card of PPP in terms of governance during its tenure? Asked by: Rama
A. Very poor.
Q. Among the parties contesting which party has given more seats to minority candidates like Hindus and Christians? Asked by: sk
A. PPP followed by PML-N.
Q. Would MQM, once again, turn out to be the trump card in this election and their coalition would strengthen a parties bid to form the next elected government? Asked by: Mansoor
A. Yes no one can form government in Sindh without MQM and it will also work as a trump card.
Q. Pakistani youth are inclined to which party.. i have heard that youth is with Imran's PTI. Asked by: Lallu
A. Traction towards PTI followed by some attracted to PML-N.
Q. If no party is able to get clear majority..what will the the option then in terms of parties getting into coalition.. Asked by: Jiva
A. PML-N, JUI-F, MQM PPP-PML-N PPP+JUI-F+MQM+ANP PML-N+PPP PTI+PPP (if IK can swallow his promises and ego).
Q. Democracy is still in its nascent form in Pakistan. Best of luck to all of you civil society members in spite of all the hardship and fundamentalist threats you face. Democratic governments will be sympathetic towards people and relations with other countries will improve. Your take on this? Asked by: Arunima, Jamshedpur
A. Democracy is the only way out for Pakistan unless we are interrupted in parts or full by Islamiscts who don't want elections. Hope we survive this.
Q. Why have been Gialin's son kidnapped..will the kidnapper ask for boycotting of election. Asked by: Zindal
A. No they will either kill the boy or ask for ransom. Let's see how the Gillani family responds.
Q. Will there be maximum polling compared to last times General Election which may change the outcome of the results? Asked by: Hussain
A. In some places the numbers will swell but not all places. Baluchistan had less then 20 percent turnout which will remain as low as that.
Q. It appears that Kashmir is not an issue in this election. Does this shows the gradual acceptance of present condition? Asked by: Neel
A. Kashnmir is mentioned only when military establishment wants it to. So, this not being an election agenda is neither here nor there.
Q. Seeing your coalition formation given in one of the earlier answers..it seems Pakistan also has good no of regional parties and they hold the key in gov formation in terms of Hung Assembly. Asked by: rahul
A. At least MQM and JUI-F will play a decisive role.
Q. Whose coming to power is the best for Indo-Pak relations. Asked by: Narayan
A. PML-N or PPP
Q. Will Imran get the benefit of a Sympathy in his favour because of injury due to accident, or will this act against him? Asked by: Narayan
A. His party is playing the silly incident to the hilt so he will bemnefit
Q. Is the Pakistan election is? I think there is frequent booth capturing. It is not real people mandate. Asked by: Satya
A. No booth capturing incidents are very limited. The state of elections is as good or bad (as far as political rivals are concerned) as in India.
Q. Who is able to lead Pakistan for welfare of Pakistan and the region (south-asia)and especially Indo-Pak relations? Asked by: pallavi sakhare
A. All parties are good it is just an issue of how people put continued pressure on the leadership to change politics and make it people or region friendly. Having said that PML-N is a good choice.
Q. Is Pakistan elections are symbolic or real? Unlike India why Pakistan democracy is always undermined by military establishment? Asked by: mohan
A. The military is a critical stakeholder in Pakistan's politics. It manipulates from behind but largely has links in all parties. Ultimately, whoever is in power has to conform to their will. PML-N under Nawaz Sharif could be one possibility for this pattern to change.
Q. What prospect is Imran Khans Tahrike Insaf part has in the election..will he be able to win? Asked by: Rakka
A. He will not make gains in Baluchistan or Sindh. But will have good representation in Punjab and KP.
Q. Musharraf will not be able to contest the polls..but is his party still in fray. Asked by: Goyel
A. His party is gone. They have no future
Q. What are the key issues in Pakistan on which these elections are being fought. Asked by: Jivan
A. Corruption, governance and electricity.
Q. Is Imran kham himslef contesting pols from anywhere? Asked by: Rajiv
A. From 6 constituencies all over the country.
Q. Will pre-poll violence have any effect on voting? Asked by: Neel
A. It will influence voter turnout in some areas.
Q. Fatwa on Imran's party and threat to Nawaz Sharif for friendly approach to India - Is the Muslim Cleric in Pakistan not in relation with clerics of India and do they expect to live in isolation to the Global situation? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. Yes these clerics have their own vision of the world but PTI and PML-N seems to be their good friends. The fatwa against Imran is not so serious. The Khan makes up by being conciliatory towards the Taliban in arguing against drones and for talks with Taliban.
Q. Wave in Pakistan is in favour of which party. Asked by: Gundu
A. Seems to be PTI but it may not translate into a clean sweep.
Q. Information so far pouring on indicate the elections to be controlled by right wing. Is it a correct assumption? Asked by: sundar1950in
A. PTI and PML-N represent right wing interests. Then you have religious parties like the JI and JUI-F which will have influence, especially JUI.
Q. Will there be maximum polling compared to last times General Election which may change the outcome of the results? Asked by: Hussain
A. In urban centers there may be greater turn out.
Q. Will there be maximum polling compared to last times General Election which may change the outcome of the results? Asked by: Hussain
A. In some places where there is comparatively less violence and greater motivation to bring change.
Q. Last time PPP had wave in their favour because of unfortunate assign of Benajir Butto..but this time around they have not lived upto the the peoples expectation...in Pakistan nothing is sure as to who will come in power. Asked by: Ramesh
A. A weak parliament is being predicted. The PPP will not get wiped out either but will maintain its gains in Sindh and to some extent in South Punjab.
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