A day before the Lok Sabha results were counted, a meme was doing the rounds in Kerala. It referred to an old photo of former state finance minister and Pathanamthitta candidate Thomas Isaac cleaning a toilet. The photo harked back a few years when he had visited a school and found the children’s toilet in a dirty state. But on the eve of counting, BJP trolls had dug it up to claim that Isaac would be relegated to doing this job after the 2024 election loss.
Although in bad taste, they had a point. This election was a do-or-die battle for the CPM, not just in Kerala, but across India. And it looks like the party has narrowly missed losing its symbol. The party, which has its sole government in Kerala, has managed to win just two seats in the state. The running joke online was that the CPM would soon be forced to trade its hammer and sickle symbol for the symbol of a civet or pangolin, or any symbol allotted by the Election Commission. That has been narrowly avoided, no thanks to the Kerala unit.
Exit polls and political pundits in Kerala had been vociferously predicting a revival of fortunes for the party this election. The party secured a historic second mandate in 2021 after the drubbing it got in 2019 post-Sabarimala row. Diehard defenders had taken pains to point out that this second term and an absence of a Rahul Gandhi wave would mean the party will clock at least 4-5 or even 10 seats.
That pipe dream now lies shattered. Not only has the party failed to make substantial gains, but it has also failed to retain the seat it won in 2019, Alappuzha.
The bad showing in Kerala must be laid squarely at the feet of none other than chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan. It was at the insistence of his camp that the LDF and UDF decided to contest against each other in the state, despite the threat of a fast-growing BJP. Some argued that a strong UDF vs LDF fight in Kerala had the potential to edge out the BJP. Another pipe dream.
As it stands today, the BJP has grown its vote share in the state and historically opened its Lok Sabha account. In at least two seats, Thiruvananthapuram and Attingal, the BJP candidates posed very serious challenges to both the UDF and LDF.
BJP’s success in Kerala is Pinarayi Vijayan’s failure.
In 2017, under pressure from the Kerala unit, CPM general secretary Sitaram Yechury said there would be no pre-poll alliance with the Congress. He tacitly added there could be local-level adjustments. The wheel of time has turned since then.
Six years later, Yechury can now be seen accompanying Sonia Gandhi and Mallikarjun Kharge in INDIA meetings. The CPM has managed to win two seats in Tamil Nadu and one in Rajasthan, thanks to his insistence on alliances in at least these states.
In Kerala, there was no “local-level adjustment”. The phenomenon of the “3 PM vote”, where the CPM cadre would vote for the Congress if BJP was seen to be gaining, was absent this time. The state unit reportedly refused any tacit arrangements.
In 2018, when the CPM lost its Tripura bastion, I had written that the ‘Communist Party of Kerala’ was writing its doom. It has persisted in a bull-headed opposition to any alliance at the state level.
Pinarayi Vijayan is loath to speak to the state opposition’s leaders. Police high-handedness against KSU workers during his much-vaunted (and flop) Kerala yatra is still fresh on the state voters’ psyche.
The CPM has managed to retain its party symbol not due to the performance of its exalted Kerala unit but through humble wins in Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan thanks to the help of allies like the Congress and DMK.
In Kerala, 2024 has been a sound rejection of Pinarayi Vijayan’s style of strong-arm politics. The chief minister has decimated any contrary voices in the party. There is no second-rung leadership. It is evident that the party’s internal democracy has been hijacked, and Pinarayi is accused of training his son-in-law Mohammed Riyaz to be his political heir.
In the 2021 assembly elections, the CPM had benched some of its popular ministers like Thomas Isaac and KK Shailaja, the former health minister who had earned everyone’s respect for her handling of the Covid crisis. Both these popular leaders were fielded in constituencies in the Lok Sabha where they did not have a strong chance to win. The allegation now sticks that Pinarayi was setting them up to fail so that they remain sidelined, and no threat to him.
The 2024 results should serve as a critical point of introspection and signal the need for significant leadership changes in Kerala.
Pinarayi Vijayan’s abrasive, “my way or the highway” style has led to a lack of fresh ideas and dynamism. Kerala’s younger generation is either leaving its highly politicised campuses or becoming foot soldiers for a militant SFI. Voters are increasingly looking for progressive and inclusive politics, something that Pinarayi has failed to offer convincingly.
Many don’t appreciate it, but the CPM is the largest “Hindu” party in Kerala. It was traditionally the mouthpiece of marginalised classes. Today, under Vijayan, the party has abandoned its traditional voters to play vote bank politics. His government has turned a blind eye to radical Islamists and angered Hindus through issues like Sabarimala.
The fall from grace of the CPM will lead to growth for the BJP. The day is not far when saffron flags replace red ones, just like it happened in Bengal and Tripura. The BJP has been doing stellar work in making inroads among various Hindu groups, especially the powerful Nairs and Ezhavas. Under Narendra Modi, it has also successfully tapped into Christian grouse over increasing clout of the Muslims.
Once praised for its handling of the 2018 floods and the Covid-19 crisis, the CPM government is now notorious for the gold smuggling case, fiscal imprudence, and the various ED probes against Pinarayi Vijayan’s daughter. It would be wrong to blame Vijayan for all evils in the state. After all, his government has also done some good work in ensuring welfare measures and handling crises.
But now, pushing 80, the biggest service that Vijayan can do for the CPM is to make way for a strong second-rung leadership. The ailing CM, clinging on to power, is the biggest albatross around the party’s neck.
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