While many are concerned about the fate of Narendra Modi should the BJP and NDA fail to make the majority mark, no one seems to be as interested in discussing the future of the Congress and the Opposition, aka INDI alliance, should it suffer a rout. What happens to Rahul Gandhi and India’s “grand old party” in such an eventuality is a question that people are shy of asking.
Prashant Kishor, who is all over these days as the favourite election analyst of all media outlets said in an interview, tongue firmly in cheek, Rahul Gandhi leads a charmed life. Any other politician in his place would have been history by now after facing so many reverses over the past ten years. This would be true not just for politics but any other field such as sports, cinema and showbiz. This may be attributed not as much to Rahul Gandhi’s survival instincts but the existence of a palace coterie nurtured by the Nehru-Gandhis over four generations.
With no base of their own, the existence of these rootless wonders, as it were, depends on the Gandhi brand going. Therefore, it can be safely said that as soon as reality strikes on June 4, they will go on an overdrive to shield the siblings and shift the blame on scapegoats. The bottom line being – if anyone is expecting the Gandhis to give up control of the party, it is not going to happen.
Though the Congress has been talking of the BJP becoming “Dakshin mein Saaf aur Uttar mein half”, the converse scenario is, in fact, more likely. Whatever the Congress and the INDI alliance’s final tally, it is going to be heavily skewed towards the South. Contesting fewer seats than in previous elections, the Congress’ strength will further dwindle in the “Hindi-speaking states”. This might have an interesting impact on the power equations within the party by making the southern satraps such as DK Shivakumar and the new kid in the block, Revanth Reddy, more influential. As it stands today, these people also hold the purse strings of the party. Therefore, their clout can only increase and that might give Mallikarjun Kharge some leeway even after a setback.
In such a situation, it would be interesting to watch the reaction and response of the other INDI alliance partners. It can then be safely assumed that the regional parties would like to secure their own turf either by jettisoning the Congress, which will be seen as a liability, or at least reducing it to a junior partner status. While Mamata Banerjee will almost certainly have no truck with the Congress in Assembly elections, the RJD and Shiv Sena will cut down Congress’ seat share drastically. The CPI(M) in any case has nothing to do with the Congress in Kerala. The AAP has no reason to tie up with the Congress in Delhi, irrespective of the Lok Sabha outcome.
But one will be most curious to see how the DMK behaves, particularly if the BJP manages to significantly increase its vote share in the Lok Sabha.
Thus, the Congress could well be looking at the prospect of being consigned to the proverbial dog house. This might, in fact, force it to go into ‘rehab’ for a while. A period of “atmamanthan”, as political parties are wont to call it, may bring about the realisation of having a leader who can reach out to other parties and rebuild bridges. Kharge could have done it before the elections but he has significantly diluted his stature and credibility by abdicating the leadership role he was expected to play in the INDI alliance and yielding space to Rahul Gandhi. Priyanka Gandhi could step in but it might be too soon to supersede her brother who would be sulking after the defeat. This could throw up the need for a leader who can heal the wounds and rise above the ashes to offer a new ray of hope to a beleaguered Opposition. Who could that Phoenix be?
There is a sizeable fan club for Sachin Pilot, comprising largely of the Khan Market biradri. What may work in his favour is tacit support from 10 Janpath via the Priyanka Gandhi axis. But seniors in the Opposition may find him short of gravitas and maturity. Another probable candidate can be Shashi Tharoor who has lately been raising his profile. He is well-liked in the Lutyens’ power circles, has a higher acceptability level on the other side of the Vindhyas and can speak at least one South Indian language with reasonable fluency. Having contested the election for the Congress President and his role during the G23 confabulations also gives him an edge. But he would need to enlist friends not just within the Congress but also across party lines. On this score, he has positioned himself in the cockpit ahead of Pilot, especially among Opposition leaders and also Congress’ power brokers from the southern states.
In the absence of a groundswell from within the Congress for a change of leadership, the pressure may come from outside. This can be from people who have some skin in the game or see their long-term interest in the Congress. Among the first group are those who bet their money on the Congress during the Bharat Jodo Yatra and subsequent run-up to the elections. They would like to recover some of the investment. This set also includes those who were rumoured to be the new crop of money managers in the Congress like DK Shivkumar, Bhupesh Baghel, and Revanth Reddy. The second lot are those with old Congress ties like Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee who may still have some interest in the survival of the Congress.
Or who knows, even a neutral interlocutor like Kapil Sibal – the original convenor of G23 – who has been very active on YouTube and social media and may be eyeing for a larger role in national politics.
The author is a current affairs commentator, marketer, blogger and leadership coach, who tweets at @SandipGhose. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not represent the stand of this publication.
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