3 Maps That Explain Why AIADMK Alliance in TN is Crucial for BJP

New Delhi: After Rajiv Gandhi’s emphatic win in 1984, Narendra Modi is the first Prime Minister in the last three decades to win an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha. The BJP got 282 seats in 2014 general elections, 10 more than the halfway mark. In several states — especially in the north, central and western provinces — BJP pulverised opposition to make a clean sweep.

As Modi-Shah duo prepares for the next general elections, the emphasis this time is on eastern and southern states. Any attrition due to anti-incumbency in areas where it has already peaked will have to be made up in unexplored territories.

In this context, Tamil Nadu with 39 seats is tactically crucial for the BJP. The politics in Tamil Nadu is in a flux after the demise of former CM J Jayalalithaa. An alliance with AIADMK and a larger coalition of smaller parties to take on DMK-Congress combine could come in handy to offset any deficit in UP and Bihar.

The first map illustrates the states where BJP’s dominance was nearly absolute; and where it may find it difficult to maintain the 2014 strike rate.

BJP won all seats in Gujarat, Delhi, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, and Goa. The Saffron Party and its allies also won the lone seat in smaller states like Nagaland, Sikkim and in the Union Territories of Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli, Daman & Diu and Puducherry.

Then there were the near-sweeps as it won 73 out of 80 seats in UP, 7 out of 10 in Haryana, 12 out of 14 in Jharkhand, 10 out of 11 in Chhattisgarh, 27 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh and 41 out of 48 in Maharashtra.

Here is the second map illustrating the states and UTs where BJP won either half or nearly half the seats.

Whereas the third map shows the states and UTs where BJP either performed poorly or drew a blank.

The BJP thus is focusing on these 145 seats where it did not fare well in the last general elections. Tamil Nadu with 39 seats up for grab is electorally crucial for the BJP. In other states, like West Bengal and Odisha, BJP will have to rely on its own organisational strength to increase the tally. In Tamil Nadu, however, AIADMK post-Jayalalitha can provide the perfect platform for the BJP to make up for any deficit elsewhere.