Barmer Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Ravindra Singh Bhati and Other Key Factors at Play

Barmer Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 25 parliamentary constituencies in Rajasthan. It holds the distinction of being the second-largest parliamentary constituency in the country, covering a vast area of 71,601 square kilometres, which is twice the size of Belgium. Encompassing the third and fifth largest districts in India, Jaisalmer and Barmer, respectively, the constituency comprises eight Assembly segments: Jaisalmer, Barmer, Sheo, Baytoo, Pachpadra, Siwana, Gudhamalani, and Chohtan. It falls under the General category seat, and it is crucial, as it shares a long border with Pakistan.

Current MP: Kailash Choudhary (BJP) from 2019, Col. Son Ram (BJP, 2014), Harish Choudhary (INC, 2009)

Candidates: Kailash Choudhary (BJP), Umeda Ram Beniwal (INC)

Polling Date: Phase 2; April 26, 2024

Political Dynamics

• 2023 Assembly Elections: In the 2023 Assembly elections, the BJP bagged five of the eight seats that come under Barmer, including Pachpadra, Siwana, Gudha Malani, Chohtan (SC), and the largest in size, Jaisalmer.
• The Congress bagged one, the Baytoo seat. Meanwhile, Independent candidates emerged powerful as Ravindra Singh Bhati won from Sheo and Priyanka Choudhary from Barmer.
• Three-way contest: The quest for Barmer is all set to be a three-way contest between the BJP, Congress and Ravindra Bhati, an Independent candidate.
• Ravindra Singh Bhati: In Barmer, all eyes are going to be on Ravindra Singh Bhati, who is all of 27, but is seen as a charismatic youth leader and crowd-puller who is very popular among both Jat and Rajput voters.
• Judging by the size of the crowds gathered at his nomination rallies, Bhati appears to be leading among all candidates. Despite being denied a ticket by the BJP, Bhati has independently filed his nomination papers, drawing considerable interest.
• Reports suggest that despite the BJP’s attempts to dissuade him from contesting independently, Bhati remained steadfast. Presently serving as MLA from the Sheo Constituency (most populous assembly seat in Barmer) which he won in 2023, Bhati had aspired to contest the parliamentary elections under the BJP banner but was rejected.
• BJP Banks on Kailash Choudhary: The BJP has fielded Kailash Choudhary, the sitting MP from Barmer and Minister of State for Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare in the union cabinet, for a second run in this hotly contested seat.
• Kailash Choudhary is a popular leader in the seat and is known for being an accessible grassroots leader. In 2019, Choudhary won the seat against Congress’ Manvendra Singh (who formerly represented Barmer between 2004 and 2009 as a BJP leader). Choudhary registered a winning margin of almost 3.24 lakh votes with a vote share of about 59.52% in a two-way contest with the Congress.
• This massive vote share was a departure from the 2014 election when the BJP’s Col Sona Ram registered a winning margin of about 87,461 votes and a vote share of 34.36% in a three-way contest with former BJP leader Jaswant Singh who fought as an Independent candidate and came second (28.21%), and Harish Chaudhary of the Congress who came third (15.53%).
• Anti-Incumbency: The BJP is in a tough position in Barmer. In the state, the BJP has secured victory in all 25 seats consecutively in the past two elections, held in 2014 and 2019. However, this time, there is an obstacle in the Barmer constituency.
• In this largely rural, Jat-dominated constituency, the party is a facing strong case of anti-incumbency. Despite being a minister, Kailash Choudhary has been accused by some sections of being ineffective as an MP. Choudhary himself conceded the existence of resentment against him. He even went as far as stating that any retribution for his error should not be directed towards Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Instead, he urged voters to support “Kamal”, BJP’s symbol.
• Caste Factors: Barmer has around 4.5 lakh Jat voters forming about 18.75% of the total voter population. In the last elections, a majority of them voted for the BJP. But this time Kailash Choudhary, despite being a Jat leader, may not command all the Jat votes.
• The emergence of issues resonating with the Jat community in the last few years, including the farmers’ protests and the wrestlers’ projects, has further frayed BJP’s standing among the Jats.
• Moreover, the Congress has fielded another Jat, Umeda Ram Beniwal, and is in alliance with Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP, a party very popular among Jats.
• Additionally, Ravindra Singh Bhati is adding to the party’s worries as he is a Rajput and is expected to draw a significant chunk of the Rajput vote which has traditionally been a core vote bank of the BJP.
• Modi Factor: A few local experts have suggested that those predicting Ravindra Bhati’s triumph in Barmer are overlooking the impact of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Rajasthan. While Bhati may have considerable support, once PM Modi visits the seat, voters will likely prioritise his endorsement over any other candidate.
• Recall the 2014 Barmer Lok Sabha elections. Despite Jaswant Singh’s Independent candidacy, which led many to anticipate a BJP defeat, the party ultimately secured victory with 40% of the votes. Jaswant Singh came in second with 33%, while the Congress trailed behind with 18%.
• Even as caste affiliations resurface this election, the potential of PM Modi to unite the Hindu vote beyond caste lines may change the game. Forward castes such as the Brahmins and the Rajputs (12-15%) are expected to lean towards the BJP, and considerable chunk of Jats too may come around despite frictions, if Modi magic plays out desirably for the BJP. The party is particularly strong in Jaisalmer, Barmer, Pachpadra, Siwana, Gudha Malani and Chohtan seats.
• Congress’ Ex-Cop Beniwal: The Congress has fielded Umeda Ram Beniwal, a Jat leader and former policeman who returned from Delhi. In 2018 and 2023, Umeda Ram Beniwal contested elections from the Baytu Assembly constituency under the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party banner, facing defeat both times.
• However, for the upcoming elections, he has switched allegiance from the RLP to the Congress. He has vowed to bring in infrastructure development in the region and improve education.
• What works to his advantage is the fact that he is a relatively fresh Jat face that Jat voters opposed to Kailash Choudhary will be automatically drawn to.
• Factors in Favour of Congress: The Congress holds only one seat in Barmer, which is the Baytoo seat. However, in terms of the popular vote, the Congress was ahead of the BJP with 36.7% of the vote while BJP scored 31.4% of the vote and RLP scored 8.2% in the 2023 assembly elections.
• In alliance with the RLP, the Congress may be able to consolidate the lion’s share of the Jat vote (18.75%) in the constituency of Barmer, owing to the rift between Jats and the BJP. The party also has an 11% Muslim vote bank here to lean on.

Key Constituency Issues

• Water Crisis: Groundwater depletion in Barmer district has reached critical levels, as highlighted in the 2013 groundwater assessment report by the Central Ground Water Board, categorizing it as ‘over exploited’. The declining groundwater levels, dropping by 5-6 meters per decade, have exacerbated the scarcity of drinking water in numerous villages.
• People had high hopes from the Jal Jeevan Mission. However, despite efforts, the implementation of the JJJM under the previous Congress government has faced challenges, leading to its gradual phasing out due to non-compliance and ineffective publicity of central government initiatives.
• The discontinuation of schemes like the Border Area Development Programme (BADP) and Border Area Development Agency (BARD) in border districts has contributed to substantial setbacks. Despite the launch of the Mukhyamantri Jal Swavlamban Abhiyan scheme in 2016 to promote water conservation, significant improvements in Barmer district’s water situation remain elusive.
• Farmers’ Issues: Apart from a water crisis, villages tend to grapple with recurrent sandstorms and locust invasions over the past few years which have affected farmlands. Other issues include higher MSP, better crop insurance, debt assistance and so on. Droughts and flash floods are also common, which add to farmers’ woes.
• Pushback against Renewable Energy Projects: There’s been resistance to renewable energy initiatives, particularly in Jaisalmer, known as the “Golden City,” which became a focal point for such projects under the previous Congress-led state government.
• The government introduced various relaxations and incentives through schemes like the Rajasthan Investment Promotion Scheme 2019, Solar Energy Policy 2019, and Renewable Energy Policy 2023 to attract power companies to the region. Notably, 16 companies, including prominent ones like the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC), Azure Power, Aditya Birla Group, and LNB group, collaborated on a single solar park in Bhadla.
• However, local communities are protesting against the government’s decision to allow private power companies to lease common land that was traditionally used for grazing, water catchment, drains, and ponds.
• According to the Land Conflict Watch database, Rajasthan has witnessed the most conflicts over solar and wind energy projects, with seven documented cases spanning districts like Barmer, Sum, and Jodhpur, affecting approximately 18,000 hectares of land.
• Oil boom: Hindustan Petroleum is set to commence commercial production at a new oil refinery in Barmer by January 2025. This would translate into more jobs for people in the district.
• The ambitious oil refinery project was conceived in 2008 but remained in limbo till 2018 when PM Modi inaugurated it. Interestingly, the project was also a dream of former chief minister Ashok Gehlot.
• Poor infrastructure development: Barmer is a strategic district for India in military terms, given the fact that it borders Pakistan. Owing to security-related restrictions, many infrastructure developments and government schemes had not reached locals properly. Barmer is classified as one of India’s 250 most backward districts.
• In the Barmer-Jaisalmer Lok Sabha constituency, villages near the Desert National Park (DNP) have particularly suffered from the lack of government support, attributed to the park’s vast area. This situation has led to water shortages, electricity deficits, and a lack of basic amenities in remote areas.
• However, in 2023, the Modi government’s decision to relax norms in the DNP offered hope to thousands of families in the region.
• Women’s issues: Safety of women is a big issue in the area. Barmer has a very high rate of attacks on women. The involvement of Congress leader Mevaram Jain in the rape of a woman and her daughter have badly hit the image of the party.
• There have been several cases of rape of underage girls in the district. In April 2023, a 17-year-old girl was allegedly raped and murdered by her own teacher.
• Suicide among young married women is on the rise. Many suicides have jumped into wells or tankas with their toddlers. Barmer reported 48 women suicide cases in 2019, 54 in 2020, and 64 in 2021.
• District officials estimate that around 50 cases in the last five years involved children. Ratio of women to men dying by suicide in Barmer (37 to 63) is higher than the national average (27.4 to 72.5).

Voter Demographics (2011 census)

Total voters (2019): 19,32,286

Rural voters: 91.7%

Urban voters: 8.3%

Literacy rate: 45.7%

Social Demographics

SC voters: 16.6%

ST voters: 6.8%

Jats: 18.75%

Rajputs: 12.5%

Religious Demographics

Hindu: ~96%

Muslim: 11%

Jain: 0.6%

Christian: 0.06%

Sikh: 0.05%

Infrastructure

• Roads: Under the Bharatmala scheme in border areas, Bharatmala roads have been constructed near border villages, proving to be a boon for common people and the army.
• Water Supply: To address water scarcity, the government has embraced traditional rainwater harvesting techniques like ‘tankas’, constructing a significant number of reinforced concrete cement tanks alongside PMAY houses. Since 2016, approximately 1,84,766 such tanks have been built, with 41,580 completed in the 2023-24 fiscal year. Moreover, initiatives such as water supply from the Indira Gandhi Canal, the Narmada Project, which has brought Narmada’s water to Barmer’s farmers.
• Oil Boom: Barmer is in the middle of an oil-boom. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL) is poised to begin commercial operations at a new oil refinery located in Rajasthan’s Barmer district by January 2025. This project holds the promise of generating employment opportunities for the local population. Initially conceptualized in 2008 and granted initial approval in 2013, the ambitious oil refinery initiative faced delays due to political challenges. However, in 2018, Prime Minister Narendra Modi initiated the project’s construction, marking a pivotal step forward. Notably, this refinery project was also a vision championed by former chief minister Ashok Gehlot.
• Airstrip: Barmer is poised to unveil its inaugural airstrip for the landing and take-off of Indian Air Force (IAF) fighter jets. Constructed under the guidance of National Highways Authority of India officials, every aspect of the infrastructure was meticulously developed in collaboration with Air Force authorities. This airstrip, situated in the Barmer district, marks a significant milestone as the first facility of its kind to be integrated with a national highway.

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