New Delhi: Since 2013, the Congress has managed to win Assembly elections only in Karnataka. Among all Congress-ruled states, Karnataka is the largest and the richest. Barring poll-bound Kerala and Assam, the other Congress-ruled states are very small and politically insignificant. Even Assam and Kerala (together they have 34 Lok Sabha seats) are not considered top states in India.
For the first time since Independence, the Congress is facing such a huge crisis and fighting for its survival in the states.
Even when the Congress lost power at the Centre in 1977, 1989, 1996, 1998 & 1999, it was in power in more than a dozen states, including bigger states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh and not so bigger states like Delhi, Punjab, Kerala, Assam etc.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi rode to power in May 2014, almost decimating the Congress, the party was in power in 11 states. In less than a year, it lost both Maharashtra and Haryana to the BJP.
Recently, the Congress rebels aided by the BJP government at the Centre successfully ended the Congress rule in Arunachal Pradesh. Another Congress government in Manipur is also on a shaky wicket. Since the state is going to polls in 2017, it might survive the onslaught, say some political analysts.
The Congress government in Uttarakhand is also facing a huge crisis. Chief Minister Harish Rawat’s arch rivals in the party are trying to unseat him with the support of opposition BJP. If they succeed, the party will be left with just seven states. Among them Assam and Kerala are going to polls in April and May. If the party loses both, then it will be in power in just five states – Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram and Manipur. As everybody knows, except Karnataka, rest of the states do not matter at all, as they combine to give just nine Lok Sabha seats.
The Congress led by Sonia Gandhi and her son Rahul Gandhi has never faced a situation as grave as this. In the next two years, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Karnataka, Goa, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh are going to polls. Among them, the Congress can hope to win only Punjab back, if Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP does not spoil the party.
The party can make some big gains and win some respect only if it manages to recapture Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan in late 2018 Assembly elections . If it manages to retain power in Karnataka and achieves a “shocking” victory in Gujarat, it can call itself a true national political party with a future.
Till then, it will be treated like any other regional party and the morale of the party cadre will also sink further.
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