Haryana elections: Leaderless BJP, confident Chautalas, hopeful Hooda & kingmaker in waiting Bishnoi

The BJP which was confident of coming to power in Haryana on its own seems to be worried after ground reports suggest a very tough fight in the October 15 Assembly elections. The BJP is contesting all 90 Assembly seats on its own after its former ally Haryana Janhit Congress (HJC) decided to go solo. Immediately after its huge success in the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP started its Mission 45 campaign in Haryana. The halfway mark is 45 in Haryana.

In the Lok Sabha election, the BJP was leading in 52 Assembly seats. But, most of the BJP Lok Sabha candidates won because of the Narendra Modi wave which swept the state.

According to political analysts, the ground situation has changed in the state in the last four months and the BJP is no longer a formidable force it was during the recent Lok Sabha elections.

Local issues are dominating the election and the BJP has no local face to counter Chief Minister Bhupinder Singh Hooda of the Congress, Chautalas of the INLD and Kuldip Bishnoi of the HJC.

The HJC is likely to eat into BJP votes in at least three districts - Hissar, Sirsa and Karnal. If the BJP takes away some of the HJC votes, it may finally benefit the INLD or the ruling Congress.

The BJP's ally in neighbouring Punjab, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) is backing the INLD in Haryana. Chief Minister Hooda is banking on the creation of a separate Gurdwara Prabhandak Committee for Haryana for the Sikh votes.

The Dera Sacha Sauda which has a huge influence in Haryana has decided not to back any political party, this time.

The BJP has a long list of chief ministerial aspirants in Haryana. External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj's younger sister Vandana Sharma who is making her debut from Safidon is also one of the frontrunners for the post of CM. Besides her, BJP's youth leader from Rohtak Captain Abhimanyu who is contesting from Narnaund is also in the race for post of chief minister. There are at least half a dozen other aspirants in the race for the post of CM.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been extensively campaigning for the party across Haryana. The response to his public meeting at Faridabad was very good and at many places it has been average.

Congress:

After the initial shocks the ruling Congress seems to be giving a good fight to both the BJP and the INLD in the state. Hooda has been extensively campaigning for the party talking about his achievements in the last 10 years. He is attacking Modi calling him a weak Prime Minister, who is good only at fooling the people. On the other hand Modi is attacking Hooda on the issue of Sonia Gandhi's son in law Robert Vadra's land deals in Haryana.

Even though the Congress is not a united house, the party is trying its best to retain the power. According to some insiders Kuldip Bishnoi of the HJC has already clinched a deal with the Congress and he may help Hooda by splitting the anti-Congress votes and pro-BJP votes in as many as 25-30 assembly seats. Sonia Gandhi has already campaigned in Haryana. Rahul Gandhi is expected to campaign this week.

INLD:

Om Prakash Chautala, who is out on bail, has been campaigning and violating the bail conditions. He has even told the voters that he would take oath as the chief minister from his jail cell, if his party comes to power. His son Abhay Chautala and daughter-in-law Nayna Singh Chautala are also contesting in the polls. Chautala is playing a sympathy card and blaming the Congress for his jailing.

The backing of the SAD is also helping the INLD to some extent. Local political observers feel that Chautala is hoping that he may return to power like N Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh, who returned to power after 10 years in the political wilderness.

HJC:

The HJC led by Bhajan Lal's son and former MP Kuldip Bishnoi is not in the fray to come to power on its own. Bishnoi is also aware of the weaknesses of his sub-regional party. But, he wants to be a kingmaker. He is hoping that the voters of Haryana will deliver a badly fractured mandate which makes him a kingmaker. According to the people close to him, he is eyeing the post of Deputy Chief Minister and ready to go with both the BJP and the Congress in case of a hung assembly.

Fringe political parties led by Gopal Kanda and Venod Sharma are also expected to eat into anti-Congress votes in some parts of Haryana.

The political pundits are reluctant to make any prediction this time. Even the betting rackets have decided not to accept any bets on Haryana and Maharashtra elections. It clearly indicates the level of confusion in the minds of people.