Who Will Get to Taste 'Bareilly Ki Barfi' after Winning Lok Sabha Fight? News18 Takes Close Look at This UP Seat

Bareilly is one of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh. It comprises five assembly segments: Meerganj (BJP), Bhojipura (SP), Nawabganj (BJP), Bareilly (BJP), and Bareilly Cantt (BJP).

Bharatiya Janata Party’s Santosh Gangwar is the incumbent MP here and has won the seat eight times. But the BJP this time has replaced him with Chhatrapal Gangwar as its candidate, while the other key contender is Praveen Singh Aron of the Samajwadi Party.

Polling will take place in Bareilly on May 7, in the third of the seven phases in the ongoing Lok Sabha elections.

Political Dynamics

1. Bareilly has been a BJP stronghold since at least 1989. From that year until 2004, the party won all six Lok Sabha elections from this constituency. Doing the winning for the party for over three decades was Santosh Gangwar. The only time he lost was in 2009, to then Congress candidate Praveen Singh Aron who now finds himself in the Samajwadi Party. However, in 2014, the seat reverted to the BJP and Santosh Gangwar, and has been in the saffron kitty since.
2. Santosh Gangwar is an eight-time MP from Bareilly. That gives him a certain reputation here – of being a formidable political leader who has historically done much of the heavy lifting on behalf of the BJP.
3. However, the BJP has played a tricky gamble in Bareilly this time. It has dropped Santosh Gangwar and fielded Chhatrapal Gangwar in his place. This led to a wave of discontent in the BJP’s local ranks since most of the cadre remained loyal and attached to Santosh Gangwar.
4. If ground inputs are to be believed, the BJP may have put this crisis behind it. Apparently, hectic parleys with Santosh Gangwar have managed to convince him to support Chhatrapal Gangwar.
5. The fight in Bareilly has been made interesting owing to the fact that the Bahujan Samaj Party’s candidate has been disqualified from the race over some problematic paperwork. BSP’s candidate, Master Chhotalal Gangwar, was expected to divert the Scheduled Caste and Dalit votes away from both the BJP and SP. However, now that the BSP is no longer in the race here, the BJP could potentially be looking at an addition of over 1 lakh Dalit/SC voters.
6. As long as the BSP was in the race, the Samajwadi Party was understood to have an edge in Bareilly. Now that the Dalit vote is purportedly headed the BJP’s way, the saffron camp has emerged as the biggest beneficiary of BSP’s setback. This has provided the BJP with a lead in Bareilly.
7. The BJP has also managed to rope in several leaders from the Samajwadi Party days before Bareilly heads to the polls. Reports suggest over 50 Samajwadi leaders and workers have jumped ship to the BJP, supposedly on the back of them being impressed by its nationalistic outlook. SP’s Shergarh block chief Bhupendra Kurmi and former Meerangaj block chief Sudeshpal are among the new entrants in the BJP.
8. As far as the candidate Chhatrapal Gangwar is concerned, he is not being able to pitch himself as a viable Lok Sabha contender effectively. The BJP here is banking entirely on Prime Minister Modi’s appeal and the heft that Santosh Gangwar carries in the constituency. When probed about whether there was a visible “Modi wave” in Bareilly this time, our correspondent on the ground observed that compared to 2014 and 2014, the mood is indeed less upbeat. Even the Ram Mandir issue’s impact seems to be fading.
9. The biggest poll plank for the BJP appears to be its development push in Bareilly, coupled, of course, with a dash of Hindutva. Recent remarks by the Prime Minister against Congress’s alleged plan to execute wealth redistribution in India have started gaining traction on the ground. In a constituency that has about 30% Muslim voters, it is crucial for the BJP to get the Hindu vote consolidated. In the absence of that, it’s anybody’s game in Bareilly.
10. Until recently, the Samajwadi Party appeared to be in the lead in Bareilly. This was mostly because the party was expecting that while the Muslim voters would stick with it, the Dalit votes would be diverted towards the BSP – leaving the BJP in a weaker position.
11. To add to it, Samajwadi Party candidate from Bareilly and former MP Praveen Singh Aron has given a big statement. He has said that BJP stalwart from Bareilly Santosh Gangwar is on his side. Santosh Gangwar, however, is campaigning for BJP and is continuously attending party meetings. He has denied the reports of resentment with the saffron camp.
12. The Samajwadi Party is trying to keep away from unnecessary bluster and is hoping that an undercurrent in its favour will help it win the constituency.
13. Interestingly, the SP is also supported by the Congress as part of the INDIA bloc. In fact, the SP candidate, Praveen Singh Aron, was previously in the Congress and joined the Samajwadi Party only in 2022. When in the Congress, Aron last time won about 74,000 votes. This shows the Congress is not in a very strong position here. However, in a close contest, if the Congress can supply the SP with anything between 70,000 to 80,000 votes, the game could change to the disadvantage of the BJP.
14. In 2019, the Samajwadi Party got over 3.97 lakh votes, while the BJP got 5.65 lakh votes. Given that the ground inputs suggest a Modi wave is not particularly visible in Bareilly this time, the SP could pull off a surprise here. However, the BJP maintains the edge.

Key Issues

Communal tensions: A substantial degree of communal polarisation is evident in Bareilly, especially among Muslim voters, who joined heated protests against the arrest of Ittehad-e-Millat Council chief Tauqeer Raza Khan, who had made a “jail bharo” call after Hindu prayers were offered inside the Gyanvapi complex in Kashi. The Gyanvapi mosque issue, raised by Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath himself, has raised tempers in this seat. Local MP Santosh Gangwar has been credited with maintaining a connection with the Muslim community to defuse tensions amicably. Last year in August, a huge crowd gathered against a student over comments made on Instagram which allegedly hurt their religious sentiments. Stone-pelting and minor clashes with the police were witnessed here. With a Muslim population of around 30%, Bareilly remains a communally sensitive seat.

Farmers’ issues: Farmers in Bareilly are predominantly engaged in sugarcane farming and their demands revolve around higher MSPs and crop insurance, greater subsidies on fertilisers, and debt assistance. Old sugar mills, with ageing machinery, cause an array of problems translating to lower revenues and wages, which is another issue ailing the farmers here. In fact, Bareilly’s farmers were involved in the protest against the three farm laws passed, and later repealed, by the Centre.

Floods: Heavy rains trigger considerable flooding in urban areas, inundating roads and highways, damaging property, and bringing life to a standstill. Residents demand better drainage systems to align with the city’s ‘Smart City’ ambitions.

Unemployment: Although a significant number of jobs have come up over the last few years, the problem of unemployment remains prevalent. Job fairs have been held in recent years in Bareilly to improve recruitment rates.

Waste disposal: One major eyesore is poor waste management by the local municipality. Of late, on entering the city, visitors are met with an unwelcome sight of garbage heaps and unpleasant smells, particularly noticeable in the Nekpur Chini Mill and Delapeer areas. Despite repeated complaints lodged with both the municipal corporation and Integrated Grievance Redressal System (IGRS), the issue remains unresolved, with no progress made in addressing the concerns raised by residents. Municipal corporation officials assert the presence of a garbage disposal system, yet the ground reality paints a different picture.

The problem is further exacerbated by the sight of waste accumulation near Dalav Ghar in Ward 13, where refuse from surrounding wards is dumped daily, remaining uncollected until evening. Additionally, even in Delapeer, considered a high-profile area, garbage collection from Dalav Ghar is lacking. The situation is dire, impeding movement and causing discomfort due to the foul odour along the mini bypass road near Subhash Nagar police station and in front of Izzatnagar station. As a consequence, these areas report a surge in cases of dengue and malaria, posing significant public health risks. This is a persistent problem in the city as similar scenes have been reported from time to time in other areas as well.

Development and Smart City: Development is a key issue in this largely urban seat. Improved Highway connectivity widened roads and the completion of the Mahadev Overhead Bridge are some developments. The Smart City Mission has also seen some progress. Earlier this year, CM Yogi Adityanath dedicated projects worth Rs 328 crore to Bareilly. Several development changes are visible to the people, contributing to favourable conditions for the BJP double-engine leadership.

However, inadequacies remain, with the Smart City tag coming under question when floods wreak havoc, or the sight of waste dumped along the streets emerges. Several roads have been dug up to lay underground power lines, but with a slow pace of progress, the work is causing crippling traffic jams and inconvenience to daily riders. The much-awaited Bareilly skywalk, subject to many delays, has not been completed in all sections, causing further annoyance to the people.

Voter Demographics

• Total Voters (2019): 17,96,060
• Urban Voters: 52.8%
• Rural Voters: 47.2%
• SC: 10.5%
• ST: 0.1%
• Hindu: ~71%
• Muslim: 28.16%
• Christian: 0.33%
• Literacy Rate: 49.27%
• Turnout in 2019 general election: 59.3%

Infrastructure

1. Bareilly is one of 100 Smart Cities under development, and several projects are in the works to enhance the city’s infrastructure.
2. The Bareilly Municipal Corporation has listed several projects including improved lighting, beautification, revamping of roads and so on.
3. A skywalk at Patel Chowk is a flagship project, which is still ongoing. It includes the provision of over 150 kiosks for commercial purposes.
4. A two-lane elevated corridor is also being constructed to solve the problem of traffic jams in the old market of Ghantaghar and Kutubkhana.
5. The four-laning of the Bareilly-Shahjahanpur-Sitapur section of NH 24 in Uttar Pradesh has been completed.
6. Several expressways connecting Bareilly are also being developed including the Shamli-Bareilly Expressway which is a 220 km long greenfield expressway expected to be completed by 2025. This extends into the 500km Bareilly-Gorakhpur expressway which is proposed to be a proposed 4 lane access-controlled highway. The expressway will be connected to the larger Ludhiana-Bareilly Economic Corridor.
7. The Ganga expressway, connecting Meerut to Prayagraj cutting across the state, a major undertaking of the state government led by CM Yogi Adityanath.
8. An integrated township is also to be set up along the Ganga Expressway, which is expected to generate a large number of jobs.
9. A grand temple corridor, along the lines of Kashi and Ayodhya temple corridors, has been envisaged by the state government for Bareilly, where all the temple facades will be restored and renovated. The city is known as ‘Nath Nagri’ owing to the presence of seven ancient temples of Lord Shiva in the area.
10. The newly introduced Lucknow-Dehradun Vande Bharat Express now includes a stop in Bareilly, fulfilling a longstanding demand for improved rail connectivity. Passengers commuting between Bareilly, Lucknow, and Dehradun will benefit from a convenient and comfortable journey six days a week. The Vande Bharat Express reduces travel time to three hours and 37 minutes from Bareilly to Lucknow, and just five hours and two minutes from Dehradun.
11. Under the Amrit Bharat Station Scheme, the Bareilly City station is also undergoing renovation and improvement in facilities.
12. The airport in Bareilly has seen significant enhancements since 2021, when commercial flights first started. The Bareilly airport is under the ownership of the Indian Air Force (IAF), while the Airports Authority of India (AAI) has constructed a new civil enclave. This enclave features an interim terminal building covering an area of 525 square metres. Several domestic flights including flights to Delhi, Mumbai, Prayagraj, and more have been taking place since 2021.

Check Lok Sabha Election 2024 Phase 3 Schedule, Key Candidates And Constituencies At News18 Website.