Hingoli Lok Sabha Fight: With MVA And Mahayuti on Shaky Ground, Prakash Ambedkar's VBA Sees Opportunity in This Maharashtra Seat

Hingoli is one of the 48 Lok Sabha constituencies in Maharashtra. It comprises three districts – Yavatmal, Nanded, and Hingoli. The six assembly segments of this Lok Sabha constituency are Umarkhed (BJP), Kinwat (BJP), Hadgaon (Congress), Basmath (NCP), Kalamnuri (Shiv Sena), and Hingoli (BJP). This election, Hingoli is witnessing an extremely tight race, the outcome of which is incredibly difficult to predict.

Hemant Patil of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena is the incumbent MP here, but the party and its Mahayuti alliance have given the ticket this time to Baburao Kadam Kohalikar. The other top contenders are Nagesh Ashtikar of Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) for the Maha Vikas Aghadi alliance and Dr BD Chavan of Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi.

Polling will take place in Hingoli on April 26, in the second round of the seven-phase Lok Sabha elections.

Political Dynamics

1. The BJP has never won Hingoli. That tradition is set to continue this election as well since the seat has been given to the Shiv Sena (Shinde faction) as part of the deal among Mahayuti partners in Maharashtra.
2. The sense one picks from the ground is that all three main candidates are rather evenly faring in terms of popularity and campaigning on the ground. If one were to stick their neck out, it would not be an overstatement to say that the Mahayuti candidate might just be trailing by a thin margin behind the Maha Vikas Aghadi and VBA candidates.
3. Hingoli is an interesting constituency. Never in its history has an incumbent MP been able to retain the seat. This election too, all the three main candidates are fighting Lok Sabha elections from Hingoli for the first time. However, for some parties, like the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, this realisation arrived a bit belatedly.
4. Shinde’s party first fielded incumbent MP Hemant Patil. However, what ensued was a dramatic tussle within the Mahayuti. The local unit of the BJP alleged that Patil did little to push the development of Hingoli during his tenure as MP. In fact, at a meeting, BJP leaders and workers even raised slogans against the Shiv Sena’s decision to field Hemant Patil. To top it all, there was opposition from within the Shinde-led Sena as well.
5. Hemant Patil is facing allegations of being an inactive MP who neither interacted with his constituents over the past five years nor represented the constituency well in the Lok Sabha. In the 2019 general elections, Patil won from Hingoli as a candidate of the undivided Shiv Sena, polling nearly 5.86 lakh votes. Since then, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance has broken up, the Sena itself has splintered with Hemant Patil choosing Eknath Shinde over Uddhav Thackeray, while the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi has consolidated its position in the constituency. This is the reason why Hingoli is witnessing a neck-and-neck electoral battle now.
6. The recent developments have been a stab to the local BJP unit’s heart. For close to three years, the local cadre and BJP leadership of Hingoli were preparing to finally fight the election from here, apparently on the back of assurances that the party would definitely contest in 2024. As a result, the party saw the emergence of around seven to eight hopefuls who thought they would be up for a saffron ticket from the constituency. Some of these even decided to contest elections as independents after being denied tickets, forcing ministers from the Mahayuti and Narendra Modi government to intervene and calm tempers.
7. With the BJP agreeing to give up its claim on Hingoli in favour of the Shiv Sena, all such hopes were dashed. To make matters worse, the Mahayuti has had to face the embarrassment of changing its candidate on the last day of filing nominations. The cumulative impact has been that the alliance’s position in Hingoli is now on a weak footing. Many believe that had the BJP been contesting itself, or even a candidate of its who would contest on the Shiv Sena’s symbol, the alliance would stand a much better chance of winning the seat than it does now.
8. Like the Mahayuti, the Maha Vikas Aghadi also faced dissent for its choice of candidate in Hingoli. The Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Nagesh Patil Ashtikar from the constituency. Ashtikar faces concerns over indifference from allied parties. Some workers from the Congress and Nationalist Congress Party-Sharadchandra Pawar have actually distanced themselves from the elections and are not actively canvassing votes for the Shiv Sena (UBT) candidate. This could deal a severe blow to Ashtikar’s prospects.
9. Be that as it may, Ashtikar, like the Mahayuti candidate, belongs to the Maratha community. As such, there is a perceptible risk of the upper caste vote being split between the two sides. Ashtikar, ground inputs suggest, is not a very popular candidate. His influence is limited to the area in and around Hadgaon, from where he has been an MLA. The threat of the Maratha vote getting split is what has pushed the BJP to align with Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. However, given that the MNS’s influence is largely pocketed in and around the Mumbai metropolitan region, it remains to be seen whether this tie-up would in any way prevent the diversion of Maratha votes away from the BJP in Hingoli.
10. While the Maha Vikas Aghadi would be happy to see the Mahayuti in a relatively weaker position, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s campaign in Hingoli could give the Mahayuti a bump at the end moment. The implementation of the Modi government’s development and welfare schemes has been appreciated, and since the BJP is projecting the Prime Minister as the candidate on all seats, the Maha Vikas Aghadi could indeed see their fortunes sliding further. That being said, there are also complaints regarding the implementation of some of these schemes and them being shown completed only on paper. Nevertheless, while the BJP has Prime Minister Modi as its X factor, the Maha Vikas Aghadi has no such face to project here.
11. At a time when both the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi appear to be struggling to win Hingoli, Prakash Ambedkar’s Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi could emerge as the biggest beneficiary, potentially winning the seat too.VBA has fielded Dr BD Chavan as its candidate from Hingoli, and ground inputs suggest that he is indeed a more popular and likeable candidate.
12. The VBA is expected to perform well among the Scheduled Castes and Muslims. While SCs comprise over 16% of the population, Muslims make up about 12% of the electorate in Hingoli. The Buddhists too, who are mostly Dalits here, are expected to back Dr Chavan.
13. Separately, the VBA’s clout over the Banjara community in Hingoli is increasing. Apart from the VBA, the Banjaras are also rallying behind a new outfit – the Samnak Janta Party. The influence of this party is highest in the Washim and Yavatmal districts. How this impacts the results in Hingoli is something to keep an eye out for.
14. Had the VBA joined the Maha Vikas Aghadi, the alliance would have a clear lead in Hingoli. As things stand, however, there is no saying who will emerge on top come result day. With both the Mahayuti and Maha Vikas Aghadi having fielded lesser-known candidates and with the threat of major vote-splitting hanging over their heads, the VBA could very well trump both alliances here.

Key Issues

Unemployment and Emigration: Hingoli has no small or large-scale industries. The region has also not seen any major central or state projects. This has driven up the unemployment numbers here. People, especially the youth, have had to emigrate to Nagpur, Mumbai, or Pune in search of employment and higher education. According to ground inputs, emigration due to unemployment and higher education affects the majority of the population in Hingoli and will have a detrimental impact on the Mahayuti alliance.

Welfare Schemes: Welfare schemes launched by the central government here have had a mixed response and implementation. The PM Awas Yojana has reached beneficiaries in both rural and urban areas. There has been a positive response from the people. However, the Jal Jeevan Mission has had an adverse effect on the people. According to ground reports, the mission’s implementation has been erratic and allegedly has been shown as completed on paper, while in reality, many areas remain without tap water connections. This has led to criticism from the constituents, fanned the anger towards the local administration, and has given growth to allegations of corruption. Whether this directly impacts PM Modi’s image here or the BJP-led alliance’s chances remains to be seen.

Farmer Issues: There are numerous farmer issues in Hingoli that the administration has turned a blind eye to. Farmers in the region depend on rainfall for their irrigation needs as there are no other sources of water to irrigate their fields, and the majority of farmers fall under the small and marginal category. This means that they do not have the resources to get a private irrigation facility set up for their farms. In times of less rainfall, such as last year, the farmers are left stranded. There are three dams around Hingoli, but the water distribution has been planned in a way that people in the Hingoli district receive no water from the dams. Moreover, farmers have also been left devoid of their compensation for crop failure due to below-average annual rainfall, which has created a drought-like situation in Hingoli. According to reports, such has been the pressure to pay off loans taken for cultivation that farmers are even willing to sell off their organs.

Development: Hingoli has been bereft of any development except for the construction of a few highways providing connectivity and a Turmeric Research and Training Centre. There are no industries in the region. Such has been the neglect that Hingoli has been declared as a No Industry Zone. There are few basic healthcare facilities and no major educational institutions in the area. People travel to Aurangabad or Nanded for medical treatments. A medical college has been announced but work on it has not yet started much to the disappointment of the constituents.

Water Scarcity: Despite being surrounded by three dams, Hingoli receives no water from them. Many villages in the constituency especially in the Hingoli, Basmath, and Kalamnuri areas still do not receive tap water and women have to travel for miles for their daily water needs. The water from the dams is supplied to the Nanded region, and the people of Hingoli feel neglected. Moreover, the distribution plan has been approved by the Sena-BJP alliance which will again have a detrimental impact on its chances of winning the election. The scarcity of clean, fresh water also drives the population to drink contaminated water giving rise to diseases. The lack of health infrastructure has exacerbated the issue.

Railway Connectivity: There has been a long-standing demand from the people in Hingoli for direct railway connectivity to Mumbai. The issue is raised in each election cycle, and politicians in search of votes, promise delivery, but up until now, no work has been done to deliver rail connectivity to the people.

Lack of Government Offices: Despite being the district headquarters and the centre of the Hingoli Lok Sabha constituency, the city of Hingoli has very few government offices. People feel they have been neglected by the government in favour of Nanded district, parts of which come under the Hingoli Lok Sabha constituency. People believe one of the main reasons for this is the fact that the last two MPs have come from the Nanded region. Add that to the water distribution plan, and people in Hingoli feel that they are being subdued by Nanded-based leaders.

Demographics

• Total Voters: 1762167
• SC: 269,612 (15.3%)
• ST: 230,844 (13.1%)
• Urban Voters: 147,952 (8.4%)
• Rural Voters: 1,534,847 (87.1%)
• Hindu: 79.5%
• Muslim: 8.4%
• Buddhist: 12.53%

Infrastructure Development

Medical College: The state’s medical education department issued a Government Resolution (GR) in November last year to set up a medical college and hospital in Hingoli at a cost of Rs 485 crore for construction.

Turmeric Research and Training Centre: The State Agriculture Department has released Rs 10 crore for the upcoming Turmeric Research and Training Centre near Basmath in Hingoli. The training centre also plans to set up an autonomous institute, dedicated to promoting research in turmeric production within the state. Funds worth Rs 100 crore have been pledged by the government for the facility.

Road Infrastructure: Three national highway projects worth Rs 3,695 crore have been implemented across Maharashtra, which will also provide additional connectivity to Hingoli. The four-lane national highway 161 from Akola in Maharashtra to Sangareddy in Telangana becomes an important route for promoting trade in both states. Another project worth Rs 1,037.4 crore has also been inaugurated by union minister Nitin Gadkari in Hingoli. It will improve the connectivity of the Marathwada region with Telangana and Karnataka. There has also been a proposed construction of CC Roads and RCC drains for the municipal corporation of Hingoli at a cost of Rs 90 crore.

Railway Infrastructure: Electrification work on the Pune-Aloka section crossing Hingoli has been completed at a cost of Rs 211 crore. Moreover, many passenger amenities have been installed in various stations across the constituency, such as footbridges at Bodhadi Bujurg, LED lighting across seven stations, and provision of cover at Hingoli railway station. Three new trains have also been launched to provide better connectivity to the people.

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