As the UPA-Left battle over the Indo-US nuclear deal rages on, could India be headed towards a mid-term election? In a live chat on IBNLive.com, CNN-IBN's National Affairs Editor Diptosh Majumdar exchanged his views on the issue.
Here is the full transcript of the chat without any editorial touch:
S Santosh Raj:We need a poll, and a clear majority to one party. I believe we will be heading for one.
Diptosh Majumdar: Impossible. That's not going to be possible in today's diverse India. That only people sitting in urban centres and metros can dream. The other and much bigger India in the countryside don't think that way.
Nagarajan: We Indians are not prepared to stand in queue to settle the scores between Congress and Left. So why are they forcing mid term pool, which will be sever blow to UPA for not completing their full term and unwarranted drain on the country.
Diptosh Majumdar: I don't know if UPA will suffer too much politically. True, stability will be an issue but then BJP or Congress both are leading coalitions which are dependent on a number of unreliable and occasionally unstable partners. Not just the Left, partners like Jayalalitha, Mayawati and Mamata Banerjee are all unstable.
Ramesh: Are political Parties (especially Congress) really serious about going into the Poll say Feb - April 2008? Or is it just a tactic to scare away Leftists and the parties?
Diptosh Majumdar: Everybody is dead serious. Given the way, they have postponed talks till after Dussehra yesterday, I think we are looking at April polls. But this government will no way complete a full five year term. The Left will simply not allow it. Not just the nuke deal, look at what the Left is demanding. A complete turnaround in the foreign policy. They want India to come out from under the US strategic umbrella. If you look at what's happening in foreign police since 1999, we are getting more and more closer to the US. It's too difficult to change that now.
KK: Are you a Communist? And why most of the people in media are pseudo-secular?
Diptosh Majumdar: I am a journalist and proud to be one... I try to be as impartial as possible. Pseudo-secularism is a huge debate. We can get into that when we are not discussing mid-term poll.
Anwesha: Dear Sir, do you really think that mid term poll will take place? if congress thinks that the party will perform wonder in the ballot box, can it be true. at least the last few assembly elections including UP have shown no hope for them, not even the forthcomings (Gujarat, Karnataka). Left has nothing to lose because they are barking with 61 seats and will continue to bark even if they reduced to 44-45! it seems the congress is paving the way for BJP, who will possibly the winner. If left pushes the ball to UPA's court (which is the most likely scenario) do you think congress will take the right decision going to the snap poll? i think this govt will complete full term. even if any snap poll that will be not before the last quarter of 2008! what do you think?
Diptosh Majumdar: If you look at our poll predictions, Congress may not do too badly. The team of professionals led by Yogendra Yadav of CSDS which has been doing the polls for CNN-IBN has pointed out that Congress has the advantage now. Essentially because there is a greater anti-incumbency in states ruled by BJP. Take for example states like RAjasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhatisgarh, states going to the assembly polls next year. The BJP cannot expect to do well in these states where they did extremely well in the last general elections.
B. Jayachander Rao:Dear Diptosh Majumdar, What effect does the political uncertainity has on the stock market? Do you think that there will be a correction during the 22nd of this month?
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Diptosh Majumdar: I am a hardcore political journalist. Sensex is not my strong point. But I think the markets started doing well yesterday even before the political uncertainty was over.
Thomas: Dear sir, if u look at previous opinion polls most of them failed (eg; emergence of UPA, when all opinion polls told NDA will get clear majority and in UP where everyone thought it will hung assembly ,but Mayawati got clear madate),don't u think opinion polls are failed
Diptosh Majumdar: 2004 was bad for pollsters but I think CNN-IBN opinion and exit polls have been 90 per cent right. Credit of course goes to the team led by Yogendra Yadav.
Kaustubh K: Dear Diptosh, why are left parties not joining the government and oppose "N-deal;" in the cabinet?
Diptosh Majumdar: Left doesn't want to take responsibility in a system where they believe that their ideology may be diluted. They believe, as you are already aware that nuke deal will bring India closer to the US. In today's context and global scenario, it is very difficult to understand their logic. I think the Left leadership in Delhi is seriously cut off from reality.
P S Rao: Let us start looking at an issue of media frenzy . First point you ask Sonia as r u ready for poll she obviously says Yes. You media hype as if she is initiating for mid term poll. Why cant media be little more sober?
Diptosh Majumdar: Please don't assume Sonia Gandhi is not a smart enough politician. She can refuse to answer the media if she wants to. AT the iftaar party hosted by Prime Minister she came fully prepared to answer that particular question. Think the way a politician thinks. That is most predictable question the media is going to ask you. It is up to you how you want to respond to that. Sonia Gandhi wanted to send out that message and she used the media accordingly.
Ganapati: The mid-term polls are most likely according to me but was the left sleeping when talks about the deal started? Or did they want to fill their vote bank?
Diptosh Majumdar: Left was protesting but I agree with you that they did not give the govrenment or the rest of us any inkling that they would bring down the government on this issue. But N.Ram editor of Hindu did say at a forum in 2005 that the Left if it really brings down the government will do so on foreign policy issues and not on economic issues.
Abhijit Selukar:Do you think that the decision for an early election will be decided by the Gujarat election or Karnataka election(if they happen)?
Diptosh Majumdar: It will help the Congress to assess the mood of some parts of the country. But if you look at the state of Indian politics, there is no single countrywide issues that is dominate the pollscape. 2004 results gave us a fair idea of a fragmented verdict based on micro-level poll assessment by the voters.
Single: What has CPI done for the common people...they know they will lose and lose badly
Diptosh Majumdar: I hope you are not mixing up CPI with CPI(M). CPI is a smaller partner with 10 seats. It doesn't have much of a clout any more and if you analyze the CPI mass base in all these 10 parliamentary seats you will notice that they are being helped by CPI(M) and sometimes even Congress and DMK to win these seats.
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Balaji: Hi Diptosh , please give the clear picture of N-deal pros and cons for it on both the sides.
Diptosh Majumdar: The Left is criticizing the deal because they believe it's changing our foreign policy and bringing us closer to the US. That's the broad and simplified version of Left opposition. I don't think the BJP is seriously opposing. They are raising nuclear sovereignty issues but just recall it was BJP which forged better ties with the US. I think in today's time you have to accept the unipolar global reality and start doing business with the US. Even Communist China is doing that. Our Communists are behaving like World Social Forum attending ideological purists.
Anand : If there were to be a mid-term polls (as its evident now), who would be the prime candidate for both the parties?? (Advani, Rahul Gandhi) and do you see Mayawati playing center stage this time?
Diptosh Majumdar: Mayawati is expected to grow. Not just in Uttar Pradesh where she might well cross the 45 mark. She may even grow outside UP if you are keeping track of Gujarat polls, she is already the first of the block and has organized campaign rallies there. She is the force to reckon with in the future.
Intekhaab: When the entire Nation knows, the same combination is goin to come back and may be just the PM would be different why are we wasting Time and resources (of all kinds-including billions) on Mid term polls? As a responsible citizen I would request a responsible News Channel of highest repute to start a citizen's drive against this useless mid term poll. I bet, if the channel conducts a 'Vox Populi' on the readiness of Mid Term poll, the majority would not want it. We all should save our Nation together.
Diptosh Majumdar: I agree with you but then you have to convince the Left. Left is saying if they don't do this they'll be committing a historical blunder.
Kaustav Ray: How will the mid-term elections help the country to progress?
Diptosh Majumdar: A mid-term poll would have been helpful if we didn't re-elect unhappy coalitions. But then in a multi-party structure that we have at this moment unstable coalitions are something we must learn to live with. It's a reality and going to be a reality for some time now.
Ramesh: I just joined the discussion I don't know whether it has been discussed already. Don't u think the left parties are blocking development for the sake of their ideology?
Diptosh Majumdar: I think so. We need the Left as our conscience from time to time. The Left parties do serve a purpose. They remind us of our commitment to the countryside which we so often neglect. But I think they are shying away from global reality if they don't want us to do business with the US.
Shewaah: The current situation indicates how our politicians are interested in power rather than principals. Congress wants Nuclear deal and power. Left wants to have control on power but doesn’t wan responsibility.
Diptosh Majumdar: It's not as simple as that. The entire debate is over whether nuclear deal is good or bad for us. We live in a healthy democracy. It's good that nothing is being imposed by anybody. Even the world is being able to see the vibrant nature of our democracy.
Prof. Anil Gor: Left parties must be branded as political terrorists. When India is truly on world map creating its own image and progressing in real terms, these oldies appear to be talking totally against India's requirements of power. They have failed to give cogent reasons for their stand and serving the interests of enemies of India. Are they having secret agenda to let down India in its search for economic strength? We don’t need outside enemies when we have such people within India. Further, they are hypocrites of first order. Look what policies west Bengal Govt is following. Ask Buddhadev and he will say power requirement is of utmost priority. If elections are forced on India, left parties must be ordered to pay the cost or West Bengal Govt's quota of power be reduced by whatever increase in power generation Nuclear deal is expected to create. And all the present left MPs be declared disqualified from contesting the election or holding elective office for life time, only then they will understand how angry we feel at the stand taken by them.
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Diptosh Majumdar: Very strong views but I notice that you have logic.
Balchandra Puranik: No way . Elections are not in the near future. As a nation we have great chance. We will overcome all odds
Diptosh Majumdar: Sorry, I don't think as I have already pointed out that this government is not going to last the full term. But I don't think the politicians or the government is making too much difference to our lives, especially those living in cities. I have just been touring the countryside and I believe that a lot remains to be done there. Otherwise, the gulf is going to be unbridgeable. It is there that the politicians need to intervene. As far as metro India concerned, development has gathered a momentum with which the politicians or the government cannot interfere.
Navin: Hi Diptosh, The left party was always confined to West Bengal & Kerala in the last 60 yrs. They got a life time opportunity to control all Govt polices at the centre without being accountable by supporting UPA. Do u think they are fools to with draw support??? If any one will pull out that will be congress party itself. Your take on this.
Diptosh Majumdar: I think, they are not being reasonable for their own sake. They will come back with far less seats. In 2004, they could have the best results possible and that is why they won 59 seats. No way can they repeat that and given the disintegration that has begun in Bengal and the past result pattern in Kerala, they won't come back with anything more than 45. They are pushing themselves suicidally towards irrelevance.
Srini: Diptosh, why do you keep on calling this "mid-term polls"? I thought that the government had completed 3.5 years in government so far and even in the event of withdrawal of support, the polls would still be scheduled after say, 6 more months, which means 4 years of UPA rule. 4/5 =80% and 80% can't be termed as "-mid-". I think the news channels should be correct while calling this "earlier than scheduled" polls rather than mid term polls.
Diptosh Majumdar: Agreed but isn't that more a technical issue. In Indian political parlance if elections are held a year or more before the scheduled time we call it mid-term polls loosely. I think television screens can't accommodate earlier-than-scheduled-poll
Ashish: Hi Diptosh, What do you think about the nuclear deal? Is it good or bad for India? Or only time will tell. Thanks.
Diptosh Majumdar: I personally think this is the best deal we could have got under the circumstances in a changing global scenario. Left ideologues who describe the deal as a sell-out should realize that India is too vast a country to lose its sovereignty. We have a lot of bargaining options. Besides, every day the definition of sovereignty is changing. A national government has to look at diaspora interests, interests of people of India residing outside. The world is getting closer, compromises have become necessary. I don't get to see a Cold War. But these ideologues probably believe a Cold War is still on.
Nabarun: Hi Diptosh, In case of mid-term poll, don't you think that congress stands gainer since left is at tight corner in WB and Kerals
Diptosh Majumdar: Absolutely. The Left were never known to be pragmatists. They are pursuing as I must have already said during the chat a suicidal agenda.
Kesavaprakash: Could you please spell out what are all the achievements of this UPA Government for Aam Aadmi. Please do not talk about Sensex boom etc.
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Diptosh Majumdar: That is what I am saying, there hasn't been much. Neither the NDA nor the UPA has ever achieved much for the real Indian living in the countryside. I am just back from a tour of countryside and the economic differences are becoming starker everyday.
Ganesh: How will the Mid-term elections affect the second-rung of the BJP?
Diptosh Majumdar: Great question. I think in the end, they'll agree to back Advani for now. But then if the BJP comes to power, it'll be interesting to watch the power-sharing arrangement. What do people like Sushma, Jaitley, Rajnath Singh actually get to do in government or the party organization. Will they keep Narendra Modi forever in Gujarat? He should be winning the elections though with some difficulty later this year.
Suresh: Do you see any possibility of Mamta Banerjee joining hands with the congress?
Diptosh Majumdar: Quite likely. She needs the Muslim votes after the Nandigram violence on a largely Muslim-dominated area,
Santanamppv: Dear Diptosh In your recent pridiction about the midterm poll prospects along with Shri.Yohendra Yadav, I have just shocked to see your prediction in favour of Congress. For which you have mentioned Arithmetic overrules Chemistry. Even with your other findings such that, the people not happy with the UPA in controlling the inflation (54%) ie.in real terms and not in Government figures. Here all prices gone up exorbitanty. The government has no control on it.For example one commodity namely "Onion" had pulled BJP government in Delhi assembly election. In this circumstances, how can you predict improved seats for Congress. This aspect alone can easily destroy the Congress in bigger way. I am very sure about it. Secondly, Terrorism. In this the present government will score "Zero" and even negative marks. Thirdly, Most of UPA allies such as DMK, RJD, JMM is not going to perform well in their respective states ie atleast not like 2004 election. Congress in AP, Karnataka in dolldrums. Most probably, the Congress has to close their offices in Gujarat ie your predictions on Mr.Modi say so. In this circumstances I do not find any rationale in your predictions. Kindly comment. I am not sympatheiser of any party however I request you to support BJP for the Country's growth.I am a Brahmin Chartered Accountant and "NO GOVERNMENT" either in the states or in centre not helpful to our communities. We are suppressed by the sucessive governments for the lost 60 years by quoting 2000 years stories. It is painful. In fact I didn't see my grand father and not even remember his face through photos. My above request for the sake of poor people.
Diptosh Majumdar: You are erring in judgement sir by looking at larger national issues. You and I may debate over it but without an emotional issue like say Hindutva, people vote on issues that directly concern them often very local issues like bijli, sadak, pani. They don't think of nuclear deal or terrorism. You also forget sir that as per 2001 census, 72 per cent of India lives in the countryside.
Kishore Malani: Don’t you think dynastic rule is ultimately leading to weak leaders remaining in Congress, like manmohan Singh, patil etc. any leader worth his salt has his own regional outfit leaders with ambition like Sharad pawar, mamta Banerjee cannot survive under dynastic rule. This also affects procpects for Congress in Long run and ltimately gives rise to weak nationalleaderwitn in Congress and regional leaders with self intrest thrive.
Diptosh Majumdar: Agreed. Pranab Mukherjee wanted desperately to become President because he knew he would never be made Prime Minister. At least President is better than remaining trouble-shooter, external affairs minister and a de facto number two in the government.
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Vipin Gupta: What will happen if after the poll again Congress and Left have formed govt.?
Diptosh Majumdar: I am hoping that the CPI(M) party congress is over next year by the time elections are held. There will be a clear indication from that party congress on what the rest of the CPI(M) really thinks of Prakash Karat bringing down the government on the nuclear deal issue. If the party goes with Karat then a UPA-Left fresh alliance would be disastrous.
Subramanya: If we have snap poll , will UPA come to majority on its own? Will Sonia Gandhi save UPA... what will happen to BJP?
Diptosh Majumdar: I think the closer we are getting to a possible poll, the more the UPA is losing ground....but the BJP is in power in a number of states where they don't have popular governments... so the BJP may be hurt more
Kishore Malani: Hi Dip, Dont you think people are giving high rating to congress as they are in power, if you look at mahrashtra, Ap & TN UPA and allies are not popoular, so also in bihar, I feel BJP and Sangh Parivar are regrouping and LK Advani has already used Nuclear deal and Ram setu project to put UPA on defensive.. BJP will gain in next election.
Diptosh Majumdar: AP agreed though reports suggest reddy may not be thrashed as badly as the BJP might be say in Rajasthan..... NCP and Congress are fighting a faction-ridden Shiv Sena in Maharashtra and for the BJP the loss of Pramod Mahajan is irreparable. Agreed in Tamil nadu, UPA will lose but then the Congress is going to make up for that in Madhya Pradesh, Chhatisgarh. Even in a state like Orissa it's the BJD's eighth year in power. In Kerala, the Congress may improve substantially at the expense of the Congress.
Anand: I know you are not going to like this but I really hope that congress gets a big thumping and BJP comes back on their own. The congress has done nothing as far as development is concerned. BJP built 10,000KM roads in 5 years where as congress has built only 104KM!!. golden quadrangular is dead, so is river linking. All the congress has done so far is divide the Indians in more castes and exploit them for votes. 10,000 farmers have committed suicides in four years and IBN still says congress is for aam admi?. Crooks like jagdish tytler are roaming free after butchering 4,000 sikhs and sonia takes mahatma gandhi’s name to fool people.
Diptosh Majumdar: We have not said Congress is for aam admi. Am just saying that for the other India in the countryside none of the parties have really delivered.
Ani: Will rural indian population know what does nuclear energy means ??? Wont it hamper congress and they wud face anti-incumbancy factor
Diptosh Majumdar: Have explained already why elections more and more are reflecting regional and sub-regional micro opinions. If we had a national poll, the result would have been easier to predict.
Vayuputra: Dear Diptosh Why do you have a soft corner towards Sonia & Left.What is your opinion about the biased reporting by the Chennai based Chinese National News Paper - CBCNN (The Hindu).
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Diptosh Majumdar: If you go through this chat once again please, you'll realize that I am absolutely unbiased, as unbiased as you may be quite the opposite of it.......please don't get upset
Sakshi Chadha : Tell me Disptosh I as an educated and working citizen have very fairly respectable knowledge of the nuclear issue, but still fail to understand its worth in terms of a mid term poll. I am just imagining how a normal layman would understand all this and the reason behind the collaspe of the government. Y would nuclear issue be a reason enough for him or for that matter me to have an expensive election.
Diptosh Majumdar: The Left knows that and even the Congress knows that. Look at the way Prakash Karat raised aam admi issues like wheat import scam etc at the Kolkata press conference a week ago. Same way, Sonia Gandhi lashed out at the Left for being opposed to nation's development because they were opposing the growth in the power sector. So both sides will now use the aam admi language.
RDR: Why is it that no political party has been able to oust the left in your state of West Bengal?? Will the left continue to rule West Bengal for another 30 years??
Diptosh Majumdar: I call it democratic sedation in Bengal. The voters have simply fallen asleep. But on a more serious note, I believe that the Left cadre raj is a dangerous phenomenon. It control everything imperceptibly. You cannot win elections for 30 years without full control. It's a parallel administration which runs because of the cadres in West Bengal. These are questions which people like Prakash Karat will never answer.
Chandra Rao: What do you mean by Congress gain - where will they gain if their allies are going to lose seats and how can they then come to power anyway - they may be worse off in the overall scenario or in the same situation as now.
Diptosh Majumdar: if elections were held just now, they may just about increase their tally or be static...they will have some powerful allies like mayawati....but in several states the bjp has been in power for a long time,there the congress will gain.
Sanjaye: What is your gut feeling about the deal will it go through or get dumped and how does India lose if it is dumped.
Diptosh Majumdar: The deal will go through....I don't think the Left will be able to block it.
Quite an absorbing debate that was. Diptosh has left the chatroom. Many questions have left unanswered because of dearth of time. But he promises to meet you all again on the IBNLive chatroom sometime soon. Thanks everyone.
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