Tonk-Sawai Madhopur Lok Sabha Election 2024: All About Rajasthan Constituency Dominated by Gurjar-Meena Divide

Tonk-Sawai Madhopur is one of the 25 Lok Sabha constituencies in the state of Rajasthan. This is a general category seat which was formed in 2008 under a delimitation exercise. The constituency has eight assembly segments spread across the Sawai Madhopur and Tonk districts. While Gangapur, Bamanwas (ST), Sawai Madhopur and Khandar (SC) lie in Sawai Madhopur, Malpura, Niwai (SC) Tonk and Deoli-Uniara lie in Tonk.

The current MP is Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria of the BJP, who has been elected since 2004. He was preceded by Nato Narain Meena of Congress (2009). The candidates in the fray for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections are Jaunapuria and Harish Chandra Meena (Congress). The constituency will go to polls in phase 2 on April 26, 2024, and results will be declared on June 4.

Political Dynamics

• Close Contest: It’s a close two-way contest between the BJP and the Congress in Tonk-Sawai Madhopur — a seat dominated by the Gurjar-Meena divide. In the 2023 assembly elections, both parties bagged four seats each, while the Congress registered a total vote share of 42.9 per cent, slightly higher than the BJP’s 42.3 per cent.
• Where BJP Stands: The BJP has nominated sitting MP Sukhbir Singh Jaunapuria has its candidate. Jaunapuria is contesting for a third consecutive term in the constituency and is one of the few who have not been denied a ticket by the party. In 2014, in the midst of a Modi wave, he defeated the Congress’ star candidate Mohammed Azharuddin by over 1.35 lakh votes and a vote share of 44.44 per cent. In 2019, his lead narrowed to 1.11 lakh votes against former MP and Union minister Namo Narain Meena of the Congress.
• Jaunapuria SWOT Analysis: A Gurjar from Haryana, Jaunapuria has become a popular leader in the constituency and is known for his connection with the public and lavish spending on election campaigns. However, he is seen by many as an “outsider”. Jaunapuria is a native of Haryana who is accused of spending only a few months every year in the constituency. To address this, he has made efforts to spend more time in the constituency and relate with the people. He has also actively engaged with the community in various social initiatives. Besides offering financial assistance to cowsheds across the entire Lok Sabha constituency, the MP has been personally funding an initiative called MP Rasoi for the past eight years, providing meals for the underprivileged. This effort has garnered praise from Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself. Furthermore, the MP has reportedly rented a residence in Tonk and remains consistently involved with the public. The leader is also facing strong anti-incumbency as locals remain dissatisfied with the pace of development in the area, especially the failure to establish rail connectivity in Tonk. In February this year, the government announced the earmarking of Rs 100 crore for an Ajmer-Tonk-Chauth railway project which Jaunapuria has raised in his campaign as a promise by the Modi government.
• Modi Factor and Hindutva: The candidate is also expected to benefit from the Modi factor and the fact that the state is now under a BJP government. Locals believe that a double-engine government may cater to their demands without political hindrances. These key demands include rail infrastructure in Tonk and the Eastern Rajasthan Canal Project (ERCP) which the party has shown progress on ahead of the elections. Welfare schemes initiated by the Modi government have also found popularity here. Schemes like Ayushman Bharat, Ujjwala, Awas Yojana, free ration for the poor and so on, have been implemented to a considerable extent. The party’s Hindutva politics also resonates with certain sections of the electorate and the widespread approval and celebration of the Ram Mandir construction is expected to favour PM Modi. Ultimately, the Modi wave, though not as powerful as 2019, is a formidable force in the region.
• Other Factors in Favour: Seats of Sawai Madhopur, Khandar, Malpura and Niwai are expected to lean strongly towards the BJP, with local MLAs mobilising support. This seat is dominated by Meena and Gurjar voters, who comprise roughly 13 per cent and 12.15 per cent of the vote respectively and are key deciding factors in the seat. As a Gurjar, Jaunapuria has considerable sway among Gurjar voters who are expected to split between the two parties.
• Kirodi Lal Meena Factor: The BJP has considerable equity among Meena voters owing to the Kirodi Lal Meena factor which is prevalent here. Meena was recently elected from the Sawai Madhopur assembly constituency by a large margin. He is a prominent Meena face in the state. He is a two-time Lok Sabha MP, one-time Rajya Sabha MP, five-time MLA and is currently serving as a cabinet minister in the Rajasthan government. Meena plays a key role in attracting voters from the Meena community. Bairwa voters also form a significant chunk of SC votes here, and with two MLAs from the Bairwa community, the BJP is expected to pull most of their vote. Other members of the 20.5 per cent SC community are also expected to lean towards the BJP. The RLP leader who contested in Niwai last year and managed to pull over 20,000 votes in a three-way contest has also joined the BJP.

Challenges

• BJP’s Path: The BJP is facing a slew of challenges in the constituency. While anti-incumbency against the sitting MP is an obvious problem, the Congress has fielded a former BJP leader and strong local candidate from the Meena community, who is also from Gurjar-favourite Sachin Pilot camp against the BJP’s “outsider” Gurjar candidate. If the Congress manages to secure the bulk of the Gurjar and Meena vote, then in combination with the Muslim vote bank, the party may manage to snatch the seat from the BJP. Moreover, the Modi factor, while still strong, is not as potent in comparison to previous elections of 2014 and 2019. This means that the election in Tonk-Sawai Madhopur could be a very close one and if a BJP win is indeed on the cards, the winning margin is expected to narrow down sharply.
• Where Congress Stands: The Congress has fielded Harish Chandra Meena, former BJP MP from Dausa and brother of former Congress MP and union minister Namo Narain Meena, from this constituency of Tonk-Sawai Madhopur. Meena joined the Congress in 2020 after being miffed about being denied a ticket in 2019. Meena is a local MLA from the Deoli-Uniara seat which he won in 2023 with a margin of over 19,000 votes. A retired IPS officer of 1976 batch and former Director General of Police (DGP) of Rajasthan, Harish Chandra Meena is a formidable Meena face, with tremendous sway in the community. Meena is also a loyalist and close aide of Sachin Pilot, whom Gurjars traditionally lean towards. Pilot is currently the MLA from Tonk.
• Congress Conundrum: Anti-incumbency is a major factor that the Congress seeks to cash in on here. Muslim voters form 12.5 per cent of the vote and are expected to vote in bulk for the Congress. The Gurjar vote bank may split and the Congress could pull a considerable part of the vote, owing to the Sachin Pilot factor emanating from Tonk. A predominant chunk of Meena voters could favour the Congress too owing to a formidable Meena candidate. Alliance with Hanuman Beniwal’s RLP will help the Congress pull Jat votes in the region. In 2023, the RLP had a total vote share of about 3 per cent here. However, infighting in the Congress state unit between the Pilot and Gehlot camps is visible here, as Meena enjoys the campaign support mostly of the Pilot camp. The lack of a charismatic national alternative to PM Modi makes this election difficult for Harish Meena.

Key Issues

• Poor Local Road Infrastructure in Tonk: Villagers in Dhani Devganj in Tonk district, struggling with muddy roads every rainy season, are firm in their demand for the construction of a paved pucca road, stating that they will not vote on April 26 unless this is fulfilled. This stance has caused concern for the administration as they fear a potential boycott of voting. Officials explain that the road in question is not documented in government records, making it challenging to obtain approval for construction. However, villagers question this, citing the recent sanction of Rs 37 lakh for a gravel road under MNREGA, despite its absence from government records. Their boycott call has put the administration in a spot.
• Poor Railway Infrastructure: The district is not connected by rail. Every election, locals demand a railway station and proper rail connectivity. In the recent railway budget, the government has allocated a sum of over Rs 100 crore to establish a direct rail link between Ajmer and Tonk. This is a major election issue for voters this year as well.
• ERCP: The ERCP, a massive project costing over Rs 40,000 crore, aims to enhance irrigation and drinking water facilities across approximately two lakh hectares in 13 districts of Rajasthan, including Jhalawar, Baran, Kota, Bundi, Sawai Madhopur, Karauli, Dhaulpur, Bharatpur, Dause, Alwar, Jaipur, and Ajmer in eastern Rajasthan. It was conceptualised by the Vasundhara Raje government in the state but was stalled amid differences between the New Delhi and the Gehlot government. Finally, after coming to power again, the Union and state governments have expedited work on the project, including a tripartite MOU with Madhya Pradesh, announcing that 90 per cent of the expenses will be paid by the Centre. The people hope that this project comes into fruition soon as drinking water and irrigation facilities remain a key demand.
• Gravel Mafia: Indiscriminate mining of gravel along the river banks is reportedly taking place in the Khandar area, which is restricted for mining owing to environmental reasons. Locals point to a purported political-bureaucratic-industrial nexus which is ensuring that gravel mining continues here. The BJP often raises the issue against the former Congress government. BJP’s Kirodi Lal Meena, Sukhbir Jaunapuria and other BJP leaders accuse the Congress of making money off the gravel mafia.
• Farmers’ issues: Apart from water crisis, farmers’ demands include higher MSP, better crop insurance, debt waiver and more fertiliser subsidies. Moreover, while Sawai Madhopur is famous for its guavas, in recent years, farmers have faced significant losses due to insect infestations affecting their guava crops. These pests penetrate the guavas, leading to reduced yields and plant damage. Despite employing different insecticides and pesticides, farmers have struggled to find a lasting solution to this issue. Additionally, traders purchase guavas from farmers at low prices and sell them at higher rates, exacerbating the farmers’ financial challenges. Moreover, insufficient rainfall has further compounded the decrease in guava production.
• Lack of industries: People demand that more factories related to fruit juices and other guava-related products can be established here to create jobs for locals and improve revenues for farmers too. This region does not have any major industries to boost employment. This leads to migration to nearby districts which adds to the people’s woes.
• ST Status for Gurjars: The demand for ST status, though not as pronounced this time, has been long pending and is opposed by the Meena community. The underlying caste conflict between the Meena and Gurjar communities escalated during the Gurjar agitation for reservation, seeking Scheduled Tribe status, and the subsequent resistance from the Meenas to share their quota, which occurred between 2006 and 2007.
• Agnipath Scheme: The region is also opposed to the Agnipath scheme as permanent recruitment in the army is a dream for many youths here. Recently, Sachin Pilot launched an attack on the Modi government on this issue, saying that the Centre had betrayed the youth by implementing the Agnipath scheme.

Voter Demographics (2011 Census)

Total Voters (2019): 1934874

Urban Voters: 21.2%

Rural Voters: 78.8%

Literacy Rate: 54.14%

Social Composition:

SC: 20.5%

ST: 16.9%

Religious Composition:

Hindu: 86%

Muslim: 12.5%

Jain: 0.8%

Infrastructure

• Railways: This region is partially connected through rail and is in dire need of enhanced connectivity. The BJP of late has made some major announcements to cater to people’s demands.vTonk had a longstanding dream of a railway station in the district which will finally be fulfilled after the Union Railways Ministry approved over Rs 100 crore for the establishment of the Ajmer-Tonk-Chauth ka Barwada Railway Project. The doubling of the Jaipur-Sawai Madhopur railway line, linking Rajasthan’s capital with the renowned wildlife sanctuary of Ranthambhore, is scheduled to be completed by the fiscal year 2026-27. The project, with an estimated cost of Rs 1,268.57 crore, will cover a distance of 152.77 km. As part of the Amrit Bharat programme, a railway underpass will be erected at Kherda in Sawai Madhopur along the Sawai Madhopur-Jaipur railway line, at an estimated cost of approximately Rs 5 crore. The virtual foundation stone laying ceremony was conducted by the prime minister. This will address a serious problem of traffic jams that ensued here. Sawai Madhopur has received a railway bypass valued at Rs 252 crore, reflecting significant development initiatives underway in the region.
• Highway connectivity: To enhance highway infrastructure, PM Modi inaugurated several national highway projects valued at over Rs 5,000 crore in February. These initiatives aim to enhance connectivity across Tonk, Sawai Madhopur, Kota, Udaipur, Boondi, Ajmer, Bhilwara, and Chittorgarh. Furthermore, these roads will facilitate improved connectivity with Delhi, Haryana, Gujarat, and Maharashtra. Tonk and Sawai Madhopur will also be connected with the Delhi-Mumbai-Expressway which is currently under development. Last year, PM Modi laid the foundation stone of a medical college in Sawai Madhopur, again catering to a long-standing demand of the people in the area. Rajasthan Chief Minister Bhajanlal Sharma has recently announced plans to boost industrial development in the state, unveiling the operation of at least six small industrial areas. These include the Shriram-Janaki Industrial Region in Kunj Biharipura, Jaipur, Sattasar-Bikaner, Balariya-Sawai Madhopur, Jatav-Sawai Madhopur, and Ramsar-Barmer, with expectations for them to become operational soon.

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